XRP's decisive battle in 72 hours

Geopolitical black swan collides with SEC's ending

2.1 dollars becomes the lifeline!

News aspect: Three knives hanging overhead

The showdown between bulls and bears is imminent

Middle East black swan strikes:
In the early morning of June 13, Israel launched airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, triggering a global sell-off of risk assets, with the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies plummeting by 4%. XRP fell sharply by 6% in one day, hitting a low of $2.11, with geopolitical conflict becoming the biggest short-term negative factor.

Countdown to SEC's ultimate judgment:
June 16 (only 3 days left!) is the court deadline for the SEC to submit settlement progress. If the SEC withdraws the lawsuit, XRP will gain a clear compliant status, and the probability of spot ETF approval will soar to 88%; if delayed, the regulatory fog will continue. Whales have already placed bets: Open interest has increased against the trend to $4.18 billion, and there are hidden undercurrents in the derivatives market.

Institutions quietly layout for the 'post-litigation era':
The decentralized asset management platform Trident launches a $500 million XRP treasury plan, with NASDAQ-listed company VivoPower building a reserve mechanism centered around XRP. Institutions are bottom-fishing with the logic of 'low volatility assets', betting on the benefits of the payment sector after regulation.



Technical aspect: Downward channel remains intact, MACD death cross

K-line pattern: High points continuously decline (2.65→2.40→2.20), low points are constantly refreshed (1.61→1.60), a downward triangle structure is clear, and bears control the market significantly.

Bollinger Bands opening downwards: Price is closely touching the lower band (currently 2.14), while the middle band (2.27) and the 200-day moving average form a dual pressure, a rebound is like rowing upstream.

MACD underwater golden cross trap:
On the surface, DIF (0.0264) crosses above DEA (0.0075) forming a golden cross, but both are below the 0 axis and the values are weak, belonging to a downward continuation pullback, which could quickly turn into a death cross and accelerate the breakdown.

Key price level:

Critical support at 2.11: April low + Fibonacci 0.5 retracement level, breaking this level will trigger panic selling, targeting 1.94-1.79.

Bullish counterattack signal at 2.35: Need to break through this neckline resistance with volume to open the channel to attack 2.60.

If the SEC delivers an epic positive next week, XRP could soar by 40% in one day to counter 2.60! But if the conflict escalates—$300 million in leveraged positions will instantly get liquidated!


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