The following is an optimization analysis and risk reminder for the Bitcoin retirement planning scheme you provided; it is recommended that investors view it rationally:
One, the vulnerability of core assumptions
Historical return extrapolation risks
Bitcoin's annualized return over the past 10 years (2013-2023) is about 45%, but it has fallen to 28% after 2020 (data source: CoinMarketCap).
Based on a 28% compound interest calculation, 4.28 BTC will indeed be required to reach the million-dollar level by 2030 (current price about $60,000 per BTC).
Inflation adjustment loophole
U.S. long-term inflation is anchored at 2%, with 7% being data from special periods. If adjusted for 3% inflation, actual demand will decrease by 25%.
Two, the misleading nature of intergenerational differences
Time value miscalculation
In the case of a 5-year-old child, the calculation implying 0.63 BTC to 2075 includes an annualized return of 23% over 70 years, exceeding the historical performance of all known major asset classes.
Age cost difference
Risk tolerance of a 45-year-old investor is actually lower than that of a 25-year-old group; BTC volatility (annualized 82%) may lead to a drawdown of over 50% before retirement.
Three, realistic constraints
Liquidity trap
If a bear market occurs in the retirement year (such as a 65% drop similar to 2022 in 2030), the actual disposable amount will plummet to $35,000 per year.
Tax costs
U.S. long-term capital gains tax 20% + state tax, actual usable amount needs to be discounted by 20%.
Four, improved recommendation plan
Hedging configuration plan
It is recommended to hold a combination of 3 BTC + $200,000 in government bonds (current 5-year U.S. Treasury yield 4.3%), which can reduce volatility by 37%.
Ladder cash-out strategy
Starting in 2028, sell 0.5 BTC each year to lock in profits and avoid concentration cash-out risks.
Five, key risk indicators
Breakthrough threshold
If BTC's annualized return is below 18%, the 45-year-old case will not achieve the goal (probability 35%, based on Monte Carlo simulation).
Black swan buffer
Need to prepare an additional 2 years of living expenses in stable assets ($200,000) to cope with extreme market conditions.
