The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has caused global market shocks: cryptocurrencies are under pressure to fall, and risk aversion in the options market has surged.
In the early morning of June 13, local time, the Israeli Defense Forces launched a preemptive airstrike, accurately hitting more than a dozen nuclear-related targets including Iran's Natanz uranium enrichment plant, resulting in the death of Hussein Salami, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
This move directly triggered a surge in global risk aversion, with Brent crude oil prices soaring 8.09% to $74.97 per barrel and WTI crude oil rising 9.2%, setting the largest single-day increase in 2025. Spot gold broke through $3,410 per ounce, hitting a 5-month high.
The cryptocurrency market was also affected, with Bitcoin (BTC) prices falling by about 3%, Ethereum (ETH) falling by 9%, and Solana, ADA and other altcoins generally falling by more than 10%.
It is worth noting that the escalation of geopolitical risks is directly reflected in the options market. According to QCP data, the BTC front-end put option premium soared by 5 volatility points, reaching a three-month high, reflecting the market's strong demand for downside protection.
At the same time, the cryptocurrency market ushered in a key option delivery day this Friday, with 28,000 BTC options (notional value of US$2.93 billion) and 244,000 ETH options (notional value of US$620 million) expiring, triggering more than US$1 billion in long liquidations.
However, Bitcoin soon showed resilience around $103,000 and did not fall below the key support level, which echoed DeFi Development Corp's announcement of $5 billion in equity financing for the purchase of Solana, showing the institution's long-term confidence in mainstream crypto assets.
At present, the focus of the global market has shifted to Iran's retaliatory actions. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has vowed a "devastating counterattack", Lebanon's Hezbollah has entered a state of combat readiness, and the risk of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has increased. Analysts pointed out that if the conflict continues to escalate, crude oil prices may soar to $120 per barrel, and global GDP growth may be reduced by 0.5 percentage points.
The cryptocurrency market will continue to be dominated by geopolitics in the short term, but its long-term trend still depends on the Fed's policy shift and institutional capital flows. Investors need to be wary of frequent black swan events and pay attention to the strategic layout of institutional investors. These signals may become the key to market turning points.
