#以色列伊朗冲突 ​​ Oil Supply Cliff​​

The Strait of Hormuz accounts for 38% of global crude oil transportation (an average of 21 million barrels per day), a blockade would lead to:

Brent crude oil prices may exceed $200/barrel within 48 hours (Goldman Sachs forecast model)

European refineries will face a 30% raw material shortfall, and diesel prices could surge by 50%

Alternative route analysis:

Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline has a maximum capacity of only 6.5 million barrels/day, unable to fill the gap

Russia's Arctic route capacity increased to 2 million barrels/day, but travel time is extended by 15 days

​​Natural Gas Chain Reaction​​

Qatar's liquefied natural gas (accounting for 30% of global supply)