01 | "The spike is not an accident; liquidation must have a script"

When Bitcoin crashes from 109K to 74K in 48 hours, then falls from 112K to 105K,

Most people are staring at the red K and exclaiming, "It has collapsed!"

And the real insiders hear the sound of the ATM starting.

This is not panic; this is harvesting.

02 | The triple strangulation technique behind the crash.

Chain liquidation: the self-burial of high leverage.

Futures contract data shows that over 20 billion USDT long positions are concentrated in the 107K-110K range,

Only a 5% fluctuation is needed to accurately trigger the liquidation chain.

The liquidation ratio for leverage above 20 times is 82%, targeting retail investors.

Whale signal: transfer data is the real blueprint.

72 hours before the crash, 120,000 Bitcoins were transferred to exchanges by whales,

Coinbase's premium quickly fell from +0.8% to -1.5%,

The standard moves before the dump by institutions in Beautiful Country have long been traceable.

Scripted policies combined: favorable for raising, unfavorable for targeted explosions.

March's interest rate cut rumors pushed up coin prices, but in May it suddenly shifted to "maintaining high interest rates".

The SEC's raid on Coinbase investigation perfectly forms a rise-drop closed loop.

03 | The ultimate logic of the exchange's scythe.

"The spike is to make you cut losses, and the rebound is to make you miss out."

Creating sentiment, timing layouts, narrative misguidance...

These are not coincidences, but a scripted play + passively executed retail investors.

And the truly smart money quietly increases its holdings against the trend on-chain,

The media says "collapse", but on-chain shows "net outflow + position increase".

04 | How to become an antifragile player?

Perpetual contracts only use leverage below 3 times, total positions do not exceed 20%.

Spot distribution "3331": 30% mainstream + 30% potential + 30% cash + 10% hedge.

Three key on-chain data indicators to watch: net inflow to exchanges, stablecoin trends, miner selling pressure index.

Set up whale transfer alerts to monitor large incoming transactions.

In addition:

When the futures premium >2%, the reverse order layout is the counterparty of the speculators.

During a crash, you can try to layout products related to the market panic index for hedging arbitrage.

05 | By mid-2025, has the direction been set?

Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around the 105K mark,

Tether issued 3 billion USDT in seven days, with off-chain funds quietly entering the market;

The long-short ratio for futures has reached 1:1.7, with shorts overly full, already showing rebound incentives.

If it breaks through 108K and stabilizes in July, it will trigger a short squeeze, potentially reaching 120,000;

If it falls below 100,000, it will trigger a wave of miners shutting down, approaching a second bottom.

[Insight]

If you are always chasing the price at the top and cutting losses at the bottom,

It's not the market that is wrong,

But rather that you have never understood its harvesting mechanism.

On-chain data does not lie; sentiment is the most dangerous indicator.

Become an antifragile player, starting with understanding the script.#加密市场回调 #ENA #PEPE #SOL #ETH $BTC $XRP $SOL