Cardano (ADA) has lost 4.5% in value in the last 24 hours and has experienced a decline of around 26% since the beginning of the year. It is showing weaker performance compared to Bitcoin. Trading volume and momentum indicators are continuing the downward trend.

Whale movements are cautious; although there has been a slight increase among large investors, there is still no permanent accumulation signal. The ADA price is fluctuating between 0.654 and 0.707 Dollars, and technical analyses are giving negative signals in the short term.

ADA Has Lost 26% Since the Beginning of the Year, Divergence Against Bitcoin Continues

At the beginning of the year, Cardano had shown strong performance against Bitcoin, promising hope. However, this momentum did not last long, and the correlation between the two assets weakened. While Bitcoin has increased by about 14% since the beginning of the year, ADA has lost more than 26% in value during the same period.

This situation indicates that investors are increasingly turning to strong and established assets like Bitcoin, and altcoins are generally struggling. The inability of ADA to recover even while Bitcoin is in an upward trend shows that just the rise of BTC is not enough for Cardano's rise.

Without a broad altcoin rally and especially without the expected possible alt season in the second half of 2025, it seems difficult for ADA to achieve a significant recovery.

Whale Activity Shows Slight Fluctuation

The number of large investors holding between 1 million and 10 million ADA is around 2,384. Nine days ago, this number was 2,413, and there has been slight fluctuation in recent days.

These data indicate that whales are generally acting cautiously, and despite occasional small purchases, there is no strong and continuous accumulation trend. The decrease and instability in the number of whales could be indicative of profit-taking or uncertainty in the market.

Whale movements have a significant impact on the market, and these behaviors are preventing ADA from gaining strong upward momentum in the short term.

Technical Analysis: Ichimoku Cloud and EMAs

In the Ichimoku Cloud chart, ADA has fallen below the short-term conversion line Tenkan-sen and is currently trading below the long-term support line Kijun-sen. Although the color of the cloud has turned green in front of us, its being quite thin indicates that the price needs to re-enter the cloud and stay there for a bullish trend, showing weak support.

The price remaining below the trend lines and the cloud supports a downward trend in the short term. For the momentum to change positively, ADA needs to break above the Kijun-sen with strong volume.

ADA is Trapped in a Narrow Range: Directional Uncertainty Persists

ADA is currently trading between the support at 0.654 Dollars and the resistance at 0.707 Dollars. This narrow band paves the way for either a downward breakout or an upward move in the coming days.

If the level of 0.654 Dollars breaks down, the ADA price could drop to 0.618 Dollars, which means a decline of nearly 8.6% from the current level. Such a development indicates that selling pressure is increasing and the market is weakening.

On the other hand, if ADA manages to break the resistance of 0.707 Dollars, the next target will be 0.731 Dollars. A breakout above this level would signal the beginning of an upward trend in the short term and could push the price up to 0.777 Dollars with an increase of nearly 13%.

For this positive scenario to materialize, ADA needs to recover in terms of volume and buying interest. Otherwise, the price will continue to remain in a narrow range dominated by uncertainty.

In summary, Cardano is in a critical position technically, and market interest has shifted to Bitcoin. The indecisive attitude of whales and the weak signals from technical indicators are currently making it difficult for ADA to make a strong breakout. Without a more pronounced altcoin rally or whale accumulation, the price may remain trapped in a range or experience further declines.


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