The probability of spot ETF approval for Solana (SOL) has risen to 91%. On-chain data and technical indicators suggest that SOL may reach new peaks. Additionally, open positions in SOL futures have increased by 12%, indicating strengthened institutional investor interest.
Expectations for Solana ETF Approval are Rising
According to Polymarket data, the likelihood of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving Solana's spot ETF in 2025 has risen to 91%. The ETF applications from major asset management companies such as VanEck, Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise, and Canary Capital reflect the growing institutional demand for SOL.
Bloomberg's experienced ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that the SEC may act early on Solana and staking ETF applications, assessing the probability of approval at 90%, and said, "Solana is likely to lead the way for the start of the altcoin ETF era."
Some analysts predict high target prices for Solana, such as $1,300. ETF approvals could accelerate institutional investors entering the market and significantly increase SOL demand.
Open Positions in Futures Approaching Record Levels
The total open interest (OI) in Solana futures has increased by 12% in the last 24 hours, reaching $7.54 billion. This figure is just 12% below the peak of $8.57 billion recorded on January 19. On a weekly basis, OI has recorded a growth of 20%.
This increase indicates that the adoption of SOL derivatives markets and institutional interest has strengthened. Although there is an increase in the risk of forced liquidation during downturns, the data sets generally show that the upward potential continues.
Strong Signals in On-Chain Data and Technical Indicators
The total value locked (TVL) on the Solana network has reached its highest level since June 2022, rising to 56.8 million SOL (approximately $9.1 billion). Additionally, the number of active addresses interacting with DApps on Solana has increased by 38.5% to 2.7 million in the last 24 hours.
Unique active wallet numbers (UAW) on leading DApps have increased between 77% and 300%. This situation supports the increasing interest in the first-layer ecosystem and the rising demand for SOL.
Technical Analysis: Bull Flag Formation and $335 Target
SOL has formed a clear bull flag formation on the weekly chart. A bull flag is a technical formation that appears when the price consolidates in a narrowing range after a strong upward move, signaling a continuation of the upward trend.
The target for the formation is projected to be $335; this means an increase of about 103% from the current levels. The weekly RSI was 36 on March 31, and this week it rose to 51, indicating that the bullish momentum is strengthening.
Cointelegraph states that the SOL/USD pair must first turn the resistance at $190 into support for a sustainable recovery.
Solana continues to be in the spotlight for investors alongside ETF approval expectations, rising futures trading volumes, and positive on-chain data. While new peaks seem possible, it will be important to closely monitor price movements.
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