The retrace is on and Dogecoin is moving lower with a full red candle. The trading day just started and this is truly concerning. As soon as I saw what was happening, bearish momentum growing, I wondered, will the last low (7-April) break or hold?
That's the question I will try to answer.
Since we already looked at the candles and chart structure (lower highs), I looked at the RSI to try and find some clues. Sure, the RSI is already bearish and became really weak 5-June. This is a positive signal because we are looking for signs of a reversal.
Once the RSI becomes weak it immediately starts to turn and the change happens first on the RSI and later the price. This is how you end up with a bullish or bearish divergence on the chart.
For the 7-April low to break, the RSI would have to go into extreme levels, ultra-weak/oversold, but this isn't likely, which means that there is a good chance that the 7-April low will hold.
A support zone is already being tested now which is the 0.618-0.786 Fib. retracement in relation to the April-May wave. While this is a weak support because it is based on the short-term, it is still a support zone and lots of bearish ammunition will be consumed here.
The 7-April low was a peak in September 2024 and also a bigger range from July 2024 (resistance turned support). In October 2024 this level was broken and tested one last time as support before the last bullish wave Dogecoin produced leading to a multi-year high.
In November 2024 again this level was tested on a wick and held nicely.
All in all, this means that we are likely to end with a higher low because this is a very strong support zone. I made it red on the chart.
If the action does move lower, it should only do so briefly on a candle wick. If you are lucky enough to be around when this takes place, you can go all-in at this point and you will be sitting on a great position for the next bullish wave.
Namaste.
