Analysis of Key Price Areas in Ethereum: The Deep Logic of Long and Short Battles at $2870

Market Dynamics Overview

Last night, ETH faced structural selling pressure after hitting $2878, testing $2870 three times without success, forming a triple top on the intraday chart, which ultimately triggered a long liquidations collapse down to the $2740 range, with a 24-hour derivatives liquidation scale reaching $380 million. This round of volatility reveals three key contradictions:

1. Whale Capital Flow: On-chain detection of 50,000 ETH high-level transfers verifies institutional profit-taking behavior

2. Regulatory Expectations Frustrated: SEC's delay in approving BlackRock ETF weakens the momentum for traditional funds to enter

3. Exchange Behavior Anomalies: Concentrated triggering of long liquidations under a positive rate (0.15%) environment

Technical Structure Evolution

• Trend Signal: The $2870 area confirms effective resistance, with the MACD daily death cross strengthening bearish momentum

• Key Pivot: After losing the psychological level of $2800, $2766 becomes the new boundary for long and short (corresponding to the weekly EMA55)

• Volume Representation: The decline process is accompanied by sustained increasing volume, with RSI entering the oversold zone but not constituting a reversal basis

Forward Simulation and Strategy Framework

1. Very Short-Term Observation Window:

• If the $2740 support is effectively broken (4-hour close), the downward target points to $2680 (January consolidation platform)

• A rebound requires a solid bullish candle to recover $2766 and hold for two hours; otherwise, it is considered a technical pullback

2. Medium-Term Risk Warning:

• If the weekly close is below $2700, a Evening Star structure will form, establishing a medium-term adjustment

• A reversal requires a weekly level volume breakout above $2878 and a stable hold above $2850 for three consecutive days

3. Thursday CPI Event Strategy:

• Reduce leveraged positions to below 30% before data release

• Implied volatility premium has reached 35%, guard against ±10% instantaneous fluctuations

Capital Behavior Insights

The current market presents typical liquidity trap characteristics: the open contracts accumulated in the $2870 area become fuel for shorts, while whale on-chain activities show signs of capital retreat. It is recommended that investors:

① Execute stop-loss discipline if breaking below $2740

② Establish hedge positions if rebounding to $2780 under pressure

③ Heavy positions should be reduced to base positions through technical pullbacks

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