Inspired by analyst Benjamin Quinn, the model links previous all-time highs (ATHs) of Bitcoin with the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) to predict overall turning points.
This concept is based on observing the intersections of the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) with historical ATH levels. EGRAG points out that in multiple cycles, these intersections closely aligned with the overall Bitcoin peaks.
■▪︎ Pattern repetition across multiple Bitcoin cycles
In cycle 'A', the model predicted the peak with remarkable accuracy - identifying the cycle's peak exactly at the intersection of the simple moving average (SMA) and the all-time high (ATH).
Cycle 'B' followed a similar path, where the expected peak matched almost perfectly with the actual market peak.
In cycle 'C', the peak occurred 42 days after the predictions, showing that while the pattern is promising, it is not immune to volatility or timing deviations.
■▪︎ Peak of the upcoming cycle? Two prominent dates
Looking ahead, EGRAG expects that the extension of the 200-week simple moving average indicates two potential peaks for the Bitcoin cycle with geometric significance:
September 2025
March 2026
It warns that using long-term averages in highly volatile markets carries risks, but the historical alignment of this pattern deserves attention.
■▪︎ Just a framework, not predictions
EGRAG emphasizes that these are merely predictions, not certainties. He states: "Take it or leave it," stressing that true answers will come with time. However, this model offers a new way to think about the timing of the Bitcoin cycle and adds a new context to discussions about when the next peak might form.
