In London, the US and China negotiated intensely for 48 hours, temporarily pressing the nuclear button on the trade war, but the fuse is still burning, and August 10th is the line of life and death!

Temporary painkiller:

The US has loosened its grip on rare earth elements.

China has also eased restrictions, allowing Shenzhen rare earth companies to re-export.

The most drastic move is the tariff plunge! The US reduced its punitive tariffs on China from 145% to 30%, while China cut its tariffs on the US from 125% to 10%. This is definitely a significant concession from both sides!

BUT! A ticking time bomb hangs overhead:

August 10th is the deadline! If an agreement is not reached beforehand, all the lowered tariffs will "whoosh" back up, or even worse! This is not an agreement; it's essentially a delayed explosion!

Surface ceasefire, secret stabbing:

The US is still lurking: the chip and aircraft equipment bans on China remain unchanged, and they boast about the court's support for their 34% "standard" tariff. I see this as a delaying tactic, with a big stick ready to come down at any moment!

China isn't backing down either: Exports to the US plummeted by 34.5% in May, setting a record; the trade war indeed hurts. But we have the rare earth trump card, forcing the US to come back to the negotiating table; this hand is strong enough!