The 5% drop in the price of TRUMP in 24 hours reflects the selling pressure following the event, weak technical momentum, and political controversy.
Token outflows from whales accelerated after Trump's VIP dinner on May 22 for major holders.
The MACD stagnated (-0.535) and the RSI (43) indicates weak bullish momentum.
Political risks resurfaced with the dispute between Trump and Musk and regulatory scrutiny.
In-depth analysis
1. Main catalyst
The consequences of the VIP dinner remain the main driving factor. Since the event on May 22, TRUMP's market capitalization has fallen by $1.01 billion (-32%), with an average daily outflow of $50.5 million (Finbold). On-chain data shows that major holders moved their tokens to exchange platforms after the event, with an average decline of 56% in holdings, from $4.78 million to $2.11 million (CoinMarketCap).
2. Technical context
The MACD histogram at 0.000593 (near zero) shows indecision between bulls and bears.
The 14-day RSI at 42.95 suggests that there is still no oversold bounce.
The price broke below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement ($10.85), now testing the 24-hour low of $9.49.
The 10-day simple moving average (SMA) ($10.65) crossed below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($12.47), indicating bearish momentum.
3. Market dynamics
TRUMP decoupled from Bitcoin's weekly gain of 3.18%, underperforming amid altcoin weakness (Altcoin Season Index at 30/100). Regulatory risks intensified following reports on June 5 about wallets linked to teams that deposited $46.97 million of Trump on exchange platforms (CoinMarketCap).
Conclusion
Trump's decline combines profit-taking from politically driven price surges with weakening technical support. Can the bulls defend the low of $9.49 before the unlocking of 50 million tokens in July?
