$BTC The relationship between Trump's tariffs and Bitcoin is complex. Here's what's happening ¹ ²:

- *Tariff Uncertainty*: Ongoing tariff uncertainty is the biggest risk for Bitcoin bulls, according to Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal. If the uncertainty remains, it could cast a shadow over risk-on markets, potentially causing Bitcoin to drop below $100,000.

- *Trade Deal Impact*: A finalized trade deal between the US and China could boost Bitcoin's price. Trump announced that the deal is "done," subject to final approval, which led to a surge in Bitcoin's price above $109,000. However, the deal's details, including 55% tariffs on Chinese goods and 10% levied on US exports, may weigh on global demand.

- *Market Volatility*: Bitcoin's price action is closely tied to the S&P 500, with a 30-day correlation of 0.63. This relationship leaves Bitcoin's upside capped while equities hold a narrow range but could allow BTC to lead if stocks break higher on softer inflation data.

- *Inflation Concerns*: Tariff-related inflation could peak by August, according to Bitfinex head of derivatives Jag Kooner. He expects a short burst of volatility followed by mean reversion unless the deal delivers a clear liquidity impulse.

- *Bitcoin Adoption*: Some analysts believe Bitcoin adoption may benefit from global uncertainty and "deglobalization" driven by Trump's tariffs. Large entities and nation states are questioning the safety of their wealth in the US economy, potentially driving demand for Bitcoin.

Key factors to watch ³ ¹:

- *US-China Trade Agreement*: Finalization of the trade deal and its details will significantly impact market sentiment.

- *Inflation Data*: Upcoming CPI data will influence expectations for Federal Reserve easing and impact Bitcoin's price.

- *Quantitative Easing*: Some analysts predict Bitcoin could surge to $250,000 if the US Federal Reserve pivots to QE due to growing inflationary pressures from trade tariffs.