This article was published on my TG channel on May 30. With the end of the second phase of deposits this morning, I am synchronizing it to Twitter, but there will be some opinion updates.
Statement: This article is not for broad publication, but aims to explore the participation value of Plasma from multiple dimensions. For those who do not want to read the analysis, you can directly view the opinions at the end of the article.
1️⃣ Project Positioning
A Bitcoin sidechain focused on the stablecoin market is set to appear in the second half of 2024, which is EVM compatible.
2️⃣ Project Background
Currently, three rounds of financing have been completed, with the core investors mainly being the leading Framework Ventures, Bitfinex, and strategic investor Founders Fund. They are basically all top overseas VCs.
From past tweet content, it is speculated that the relationship with Bitfinex should be the best, followed by Founders Fund, and then Framework Ventures.
3️⃣ Cooperation Situation
Currently, Plasma has partnered with Ethena, Curve, USDT0, Yellow Card (the largest stablecoin infrastructure provider in Africa), and Uranium Digital.
4️⃣ Financing Situation
Currently, there have been a total of three rounds of financing, and the community round that will soon be opened is the fourth round.
The first round of financing was 3.5 million USD, the second round was 24 million USD, and the third round was strategic financing at a valuation of 500 million USD.
This community round is also financing 10% of tokens at a valuation of 500 million USD, which is 50 million USD.
Overall, it seems to be giving some benefits to the community, after all, it is at the same valuation as the last round of investors, and it definitely cannot allow investors to incur losses after the opening.
From the current narrative, it is speculated that the first round should raise 3.5% of tokens at a valuation of 100 million USD, the second round around 300 million USD for 8% of tokens, and the strategic round financing 4.5% for 22.5 million USD. Additionally, the community round will raise 25% of tokens (this part is purely personal speculation and has a significant chance of inaccuracy).
Referring to the current ecological leader STX FDV of 180 million USD, the financing ratio is very high, and there will be significant selling pressure and cash-out pressure in the future.
5️⃣ Participation Method
Points are earned in real-time based on the amount of locked stablecoins, and later, community round quotas will be allocated based on the total points (essentially, the earlier you deposit, the better).
The invested stablecoins need to be locked for 40 days.
Participate in the community round based on the allocated quota.
6️⃣ Overall Assessment
The fundamentals of the entire project can be ignored; it is more of a shell with speculative value. Moreover, this shell is a project organized by top VCs and belongs to an open strategy.
With Binance recently listing Merl, B2, and a batch of BTC ecosystem projects, it indicates that market attention to the BTC ecosystem is gradually increasing.
The current project is in its early stages; I personally believe that playing the open strategy is more about timing of entry rather than fundamental analysis.
Additionally, the first phase of deposits opened and closed instantly, with most of the large amounts taken by institutions; the second phase was filled within half an hour due to last-minute notifications and timing, packed by thousands of addresses.
This indicates that there is actually quite a bit of money in the market, but there are too many monks and too little meat. Such certain opportunities are often fought over by institutions, leaving few opportunities for retail investors. If one can participate, the risk-reward ratio will be very favorable.
The market is also speculating about obtaining pre-sale quotas, and there may be potential expectations for ecological airdrops in the future. It is uncertain whether there will be a third deposit, but it might be worth keeping an eye on.
