The impact of the customs agreement between the United States and China on the cryptocurrency market depends on the nature of the agreement and the overall economic context. By 2025, the potential impacts can be summarized as follows:
1. Reducing trade tensions and boosting market optimism:
A trade agreement that eases tariffs or ends the trade escalation between the two countries could enhance confidence in global markets. This optimism could positively reflect on cryptocurrencies, as happened in May 2025 when a temporary agreement between Washington and Beijing led to a rise in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices, with Bitcoin approaching $120,000, supported by buying momentum and increased interest from investors.
2. Impact on safe havens:
When demand for traditional assets like gold declines due to decreased fears of economic recession, it may negatively impact cryptocurrencies, which are sometimes considered an alternative safe haven. For example, in May 2025, the gold market saw calm after a trade agreement, reducing demand for safe havens, and this could partially apply to cryptocurrencies if investor appetite shifts towards traditional assets like bonds.
3. Impact of accompanying economic policies:
If the customs agreement is accompanied by Chinese economic policies that encourage the use of digital assets (such as the digital yuan or easing the ban on cryptocurrencies), it could lead to a significant boost for the cryptocurrency market. Some reports indicate that China is gradually opening up to digital assets as part of its economic strategies, which could increase market liquidity.
4. Short-term volatility:
Before reaching an agreement, markets may experience volatility due to uncertainty. For example, in June 2025, caution prevailed among investors ahead of trade talks, leading to varied performance in cryptocurrencies. The announcement of an agreement could lead to temporary spikes, but sustainability depends on the execution details.
5. Indirect impact through foreign exchange markets:
Tariffs affect the stability of traditional currencies, such as the dollar and yuan, which may drive investors towards cryptocurrencies as an alternative. For example, predictions of a strengthened yuan as a result of trade talks could reduce pressure on emerging markets, indirectly affecting the attractiveness of cryptocurrencies.
Conclusion:
The customs agreement between the United States and China could have a positive short-term impact on cryptocurrencies by boosting optimism and increasing market liquidity, especially if China encourages the use of digital assets. However, a decline in fears of economic recession may lead to decreased demand for cryptocurrencies as a safe haven. The long-term impact depends on the sustainability of the agreement and the two countries' policies towards cryptocurrencies.
Note: Information regarding China lifting the ban on cryptocurrencies or injecting $2 trillion into the market is unconfirmed and based on posts on platform X, so it should be treated with caution until verified by reliable sources.
