📌 What's Happening Now
1. Judicial pause but tariffs remain
A federal appeals court has temporarily kept Trump’s broad tariffs — imposed under the IEEPA — in place, postponing a lower court's injunction until an expedited hearing set for July 31, 2025 .
2. Global economic impact
The World Bank warns that 2025–2027 could be the weakest growth period since the 1960s, due in large part to these tariffs .
J.P. Morgan estimates that a 10% baseline tariff plus 110% on China could shave 1 % off global GDP; even a toned-down version may cut around 0.7 % .
Investopedia notes rising stagflation risks: 2025 growth may be just 0–0.5%, with core PCE inflation potentially reaching 4.7% .
3. Consumer price pressures
Everyday goods—like smartphones, PCs, appliances, and even groceries—are seeing price hikes as companies pass on increased import costs .
Estimates suggest American households could pay ~$3,800–4,000 more per year because of these tariffs .
4. Mixed business and manufacturing response
Some U.S. manufacturers, especially local ones, are seeing increased orders and reshoring benefits—e.g., Jergens Inc. reported demand growing by 10–15% .
Yet, others are suffering: steep input costs, supply chain disruptions, shrinking manufacturing indices, and stalled expansion .
5. Recession concerns
Elon Musk has publicly warned that these tariffs might push the U.S. into recession by the second half of 2025 .
The Federal Reserve has stated that while inflation remains a bigger concern than jobs, the full tariff impact hasn’t yet been felt .
6. Targeting new countries
Vietnam is actively negotiating with U.S. brands (like Gap and Levi Strauss) to avoid proposed tariffs as high as 46% .
Additional tariffs on steel and aluminum were doubled to 50% on June 4, although the U.K. remains exempted at 25% .