UniQuant Market Analysis

June 12, 2025

1. Liquidation Game: High Position Suppression vs. Short Squeeze

BTC attacked upwards to the $110K–$110.4K range yesterday, triggering a large number of short liquidations. According to Glassnode data, short liquidations surged by approximately 240% between $105K and $107K.

If $111K is breached, it may trigger approximately $924M in short liquidations; if it falls below $108K, there will be approximately $1.14B in long liquidation pressure.

Therefore, the main force attracts short orders by pulling up at high positions, and then suppresses the price through massive pending orders, deploying a "high-then-low" liquidation strategy.

2. Order Book Structure & Liquidity Range

Looking at the current order book, a large number of sell‑stop orders and selling pressure are gathered above $111K, forming a structural "ceiling"; $100K below is the center of liquidity and the bottom of the current stage.

Technically, $107K–$110K is a key area for determining the direction of the market: a breakthrough will attract short covering; but if it is suppressed, it indicates that the main force may continue to exert pressure and fall into a liquidation trap.

3. Market Sentiment and On‑chain Data

Long-term holders continue to accumulate, increasing by approximately 309K BTC in the past 30 days, reaching a new historical high. Long hands are in the primary accumulation phase.

Short-term holders have withdrawn by 833K BTC, reflecting a short-term cooling of sentiment.

BTC's funding rate has turned negative, indicating that the market is dominated by shorts, which also means that there is potential for a short-term wash out.

A bull flag breakout pattern has formed on the technical chart, and the 50-day moving average and 200-day moving average have formed a golden cross, which is medium-term bullish. However, the daily line still needs to reclaim the $106.6K–$106.8K resistance as confirmation.

Support levels to watch: $107K, $105K, and $100K. These ranges correspond to short-term liquidity restructuring and liquidation signs. The upper resistance is at $111K–$112K, and higher is a new round of short positions.

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