📈 Current Situation
• Price: approximately $107,500 according to the above instrument.
• Today's high: $110,277.
Lowest level: $107,512.
• Overall trend: Bullish trend still exists, near its historical highs (~$112,000) .
🔍 Driving factors
1. Declining inflation:
US inflation data for May showed the CPI rising by 2.4%, lower than expected, which raised expectations for interest rate cuts this year, thus supporting risk assets like Bitcoin .
2. Rising institutional demand:
Strong inflows towards Bitcoin-holding ETFs, with managed assets surpassing $132 billion from $91 billion about a month ago .
3. Positive technical performance:
• Breakout of the 'flag' pattern signifies the continuation of upward momentum.
• Golden cross between the 50 and 200-day moving averages, indicating the possibility of additional gains  .
4. Future price forecasts:
• Bitwise sees the 'fair value' at $230,000, with a possibility of reaching $200,000 by 2025 due to pressure on federal debt and demand as a hedge .
• Concentrated forecasts range from $150,000 to $230,000 by the end of 2025.
⚠️ Risks and Warnings
• Potential correction ahead:
Indicators such as limited divergence from the 50-day moving average suggest a potential correction of about 10% before reestablishing upward momentum .
• Critical technical support:
Important levels lie between $107,000 and $105,000. Any break below may lead to a correction towards ~$100,000 or less if the market does not respond quickly .
⸻
🔭
⸻
🧭 Recommendations and Strategy
• For long-term investors: Bitcoin shows momentum that aligns with diversifying a financial portfolio (by 1-5%).
• For short-term trading: Monitor support levels ($107–105k) and resistance ($112k), and use a strict stop-loss to detect correction.
• News monitoring: Vital to follow inflation data and Federal reports to guide momentum direction, as digital asset prices react quickly to these indicators.
⸻
🧾 Summary
Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory supported by declining inflation, increasing institutional demand, and strong technical resistances. However, it also faces a support test around $105–107 thousand, which will be a critical stage before discussing levels of $150–230 thousand later in 2025. Be vigilant for any sudden changes in economic or political conditions, as they may significantly impact the price trajectory.
