#TrumpTariffs
𧞠Policy Snapshot
New US tariffs:
55% on Chinese imports, while China imposes 10% on US goods .
50% on steel & aluminum, with partial rollback for Mexico .
30% on most Chinese goods, 10% on others .
Tariffs tied to national security: Declared via national emergency to combat fentanyl trafficking .
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đ Economic Effects
Global slowdown risk:
World Bank warns Trump's trade war could drag global growth to its weakest in decadesâU.S. GDP projected at just 1.4% in 2025 .
Inflation pressure:
May CPI up from 2.3% to 2.4%âtariff effects modest now, but economists expect gradual price rise .
Household impact:
Families losing $1,700â$8,100 depending on income) .
Working class hit hardest (~4% of income), richer households ~1.6% .
Sectoral burden:
Biggest hits in clothing (+17%), fresh produce (~+4%), vehicles (+8.4%) .
Long-term GDP drag:
Tariffs could reduce US GDP by ~0.9âŻpp in 2025 plus long-run 0.6% output loss .
Household wage losses ~5%, GDP down ~6% over time .
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đ Financial & Market Reactions
Stocks volatile:
S&P fell sharply in March and again in April around tariff announcements .
Rising tariff revenue:
Treasury collections surged ~78%, totaling $69âŻbillion in first five monthsâpaid by businesses and consumers .
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đŹ Expert Opinions
Elon Musk warns of a US recession in late 2025, calling the tariffs âsuper stupidâ .
Federal Reserve officials caution inflation risk higher than unemployment, linking concerns to tariffs .
Manufacturing insiders say input costs from steel/aluminum tariffs are contracting sector, pushing firms to scale back .
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đ Summary
Trumpâs broad tariffsâfrom steel to Chinese goodsâare accelerating costs across industries and households. While inflation impacts are moderate now, long-term projections show lowered GDP growth, reduced wages, and significant consumer burden. Market volatility and heightened policy uncertainty remain central concerns.