Ethereum (ETH) has recently made significant progress in its on-chain fundamentals. As of now, 34.8 million ETH have been staked, accounting for nearly 30% of its circulating supply, setting a new historical record and officially surpassing the previous high set in November 2024.
More promisingly, the market is about to welcome the launch of ETH spot staking ETFs, which is expected to bring a new round of entry window for institutional funds, further driving the scale of staking up and injecting new confidence into the market.
Whales have not significantly distributed; ETH may still be in a mid-term accumulation phase.
According to on-chain analysis, a key indicator—the trend of whale address changes—shows that ETH has not yet entered a clear distribution phase. This means that many high-net-worth addresses are still holding and observing or continuously accumulating, and there has not yet been a typical exit behavior at a peak.
For ordinary traders, this structure may provide more short-term trading opportunities, especially during periods of increased price volatility.
Technical analysis: ETH's performance has exceeded expectations, and it may face a critical directional choice in the short term.
Looking back over the past week, ETH successfully broke through the resistance range of $2,700–$2,800. Although the breakout above $2,780 in a short time is considered an unexpectedly strong performance, the current price has surpassed $2,800 and tested the important support level of $2,774.
Trader RektProof pointed out on the X platform that the rapid rise in price may be deviating from local highs, indicating a risk of a bearish reversal in the short term. This view is based on the trend assessment from late May: ETH has rebounded from a local low of $2,400, and a similar reversal structure may appear again.
Resistance testing is imminent; the distinction between long and short signals is clear.
The current market's key area is concentrated between $2,885–$2,915, which is a supply resistance zone that was validated in February.
If ETH shows weakness after testing this area and falls below $2,774, it may release a clear short-selling signal.
Conversely, if the price breaks through and holds above $2,915, bulls are expected to further challenge the strong psychological level of $3,000.
At the same time, as BTC continues to approach $110,000, market risk appetite is warming. From the OBV (On-Balance Volume) indicator, ETH buying momentum is significantly increasing, suggesting that the possibility of breaking out is rising.
ETH is currently in a sensitive period of resonance between technical and fundamental factors. On one hand, staking data and ETF expectations reinforce the bullish logic in the medium to long term; on the other hand, the unexpected rebound in price has also drawn close attention from short-term traders.
Both bulls and bears are about to engage in a contest around $2,900; a breakout or pullback could present a directional trading opportunity. The key next step is whether it can hold above $2,915 and leverage the overall market liquidity environment to challenge the new upper range.
