When market sentiment is high and social media is filled with slogans like 'Ethereum is about to break $3000 and $5000,' we should take a moment to reflect on the macro realities and potential risks behind it. Over the past week, I have noticed that some KOLs and analysts selectively ignore the significant risk factors present in the current global financial and geopolitical situation, including the breakdown of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the pressure of U.S. debt approaching, California entering a state of emergency, and the impending tariff policies.

These events are not just news headlines; they are key variables that directly impact market liquidity, asset risk pricing, and investment confidence. However, to cater to market sentiment and garner clicks and traffic, some voices choose to downplay these risks and excessively amplify technical rebounds and short-term capital flows, attempting to create a FOMO atmosphere of 'miss it, and it will be too late.' Such misleading narratives could likely lead retail investors to buy in at high prices, ignoring whether there is real capital and fundamental support behind the price increase.

From the current technical and capital structure observation, Ethereum has entered the pressure range predicted earlier. In a time of intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with high uncertainty in market variables, investors should establish their own risk awareness and independent judgment. There are no perpetual bulls in the market, nor are there invincible trends; only continuously changing signals and a process of value reassessment.

If you have already made profits in the earlier phase, you might consider using this pullback to adjust your positions and observe the subsequent developments and policy directions; if you are still on the sidelines, please remember: real opportunities often arise after emotions cool down and the market returns to rationality. Maintaining sensitivity and reading the true variables that affect the market, rather than merely chasing prices based on popularity, is key to navigating volatility and achieving long-term returns.

What stage do you think Ethereum's trend will reach in June?