【CICC: Powell's Attitude at the June FOMC Meeting May Be Hawkish】Jin10 Data, June 12 – CICC stated that looking ahead, we are inclined to see a round of price increases in the U.S. over the next few months, but unlike the inflation seen in 2021-2022, this round of price hikes is more structural and one-off, rather than broad-based inflation. For the Federal Reserve, moderate inflation data is good news, but officials are unlikely to make significant decisions based on a single month's data. Given that the current labor market remains stable, the Fed does not need to rush to cut interest rates, and officials may prefer to wait for more data before making a decision. Next week, the Fed will hold its June FOMC meeting. We believe that compared to the dot plot in March when there were no 'reciprocal tariffs,' the June FOMC may slightly raise its inflation forecast, but due to the resilience of non-farm employment and easing tariffs, the Fed's assessment of growth may be more optimistic than in March. Thus, Powell's attitude at this meeting may be hawkish, which could disappoint investors expecting a rate cut from the Fed.

(From Jin10 Data APP)