#加密圆桌讨论
"The 400 million dollar bet is not on Musk, but on the cracks in American politics!"
Crypto friends, Musk is up to something again! This time he’s not launching rockets or making cars, but he wants to create an 'American Party' with the slogan representing 80% of the silent moderates. As a result, over 5 million people voted on X, with more than 80% raising their hands in approval. Musk got so excited that he officially announced: 'The voice of the people is destiny!'
But real money is even crazier! On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of him building a party in 2025 jumped from 7% to 17%, surging 2% in 24 hours, with bets exceeding 416 million dollars—note, this platform uses cryptocurrency for betting, which Americans are banned from, but gamblers worldwide are going wild. Why is it so crazy?
He has completely torn relations with Trump: Musk criticized Trump’s tariff policy as 'wrecking the economy', and Trump retaliated by calling him 'crazy', even threatening to cut Tesla’s subsidies. The two revealed each other's dirty laundry, and Musk even reposted calling for 'impeach Trump'
Tesla's stock price took a nosedive: on the day of the spat, the stock price plummeted by 14%, with a market cap evaporating by 150 billion dollars, leaving retail investors in tears;
The X platform is personally fanning the flames: Polymarket has become X's official prediction partner, feeding betting data directly to users' mouths—this traffic play is incredible.
But I see a dilemma! Can the American Party become a third force? Difficult!
As rich as Musk is, he cannot overcome the rigid system:
Moderates are actually 'scattered sands'—among the so-called 80% supporters, only about 15% are truly willing to vote; most are bystanders who think both sides are dirty;
Musk cannot become president! The Constitution requires one to be born in the U.S., and since he is from South Africa, he can only act as a financial backer behind the scenes;
Both parties are already wary of this move: the Republican Party has stated, 'If you dare to build a party, we will cut government contracts,' and NASA has already found a backup company to replace SpaceX.
What should crypto people pay attention to? This wave of popularity for Polymarket proves: on-chain betting has become a political weather vane!
