#加密圆桌讨论 6.11 Evening Thoughts

The 4-hour MA5 line crosses below the MA10 line with a clear slope, forming a valid death cross. At the same time, the MACD indicator shows green bars continuously expanding, indicating a stepwise enhancement of bearish momentum, highlighting the continuation of the medium-term adjustment trend.

The price trajectory in the 1-hour period closely follows the middle and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands, and the KDJ indicator forms a three-line convergence pattern below the oversold threshold (under 20), suggesting a phase of exhaustion in short-term bearish momentum, indicating a technical need for a rebound from the oversold condition.

The hourly level order book shows that the market has entered a narrow range consolidation phase, with long and short funds forming a tug-of-war at key price levels. Current technical indicators exhibit contradictory signals: on one hand, the moving average system maintains a bearish arrangement, while on the other hand, the oversold indicator releases recovery signals, leading to a phase of ambiguity in market direction choice. Notably, the candlestick patterns have consecutively shown bearish engulfing and top island reversal patterns, along with strong reversal signals, compounded by a continuous shrinkage in volume during the rebound phase, necessitating caution against the risk of continued downward movement after a consolidation. For tonight's strategy, we will operate with a high short and low long approach!