Trump has finally taken action, aiming to completely eliminate Musk's business.
Let's talk about how this will deal a heavy blow to Musk!
Bad Potato, a work
Originally published on Toutiao, a Bad Potato
Accompany my country to counterattack
After Musk lashed out for several days, Trump finally took action.
First, he warned Musk that if he funded the Democrats, the consequences would be severe.
It means breaking up with oneself; one cannot be good with others afterward.
But more critically, the Washington Post released explosive news on June 7:
NASA and Pentagon officials have quickly taken action, urging competitors of SpaceX to accelerate the development of alternative rockets and spacecraft.
The White House has contacted at least three commercial space companies to inquire about their rocket development progress and when they can provide services for government missions.
Do you know what this means? It means replacing all of Musk's businesses!
Now many people say that Trump and Musk will reconcile; I can clearly tell you that this possibility is less than 1%. Even if the relationship temporarily eases, the two cannot trust each other again.
So Trump is already making comprehensive preparations to minimize the losses from his falling out with Musk.
Here we need to talk about Musk's business empire.
Musk's business covers a vast range, including Neuralink, which focuses on human-computer interaction technology, and The Boring Company, which alleviates urban traffic congestion, among other various projects.
But Musk's core areas consist of three parts:
First is Tesla, currently the highest-valued car manufacturer globally, accounting for about 50% of the U.S. electric vehicle market.
Tesla is absolutely irreplaceable for the U.S.; it has 4680 battery patents that create a technological barrier, allowing the U.S. lithium battery industry to somewhat break free from reliance on the Asian supply chain.
Biden has been trying to localize battery production in the U.S., which heavily relies on Tesla.
But for this part, Trump really doesn't care, because his backers and basic support are all traditional energy companies in the U.S., and he has always opposed new energy.
So what he needs to do now is cut all new energy subsidies and develop traditional gasoline vehicles.
Musk's second core business is X, which is the former Twitter.
Twitter currently has 130 million active users in the U.S., making it a key battleground for political discourse. In 2024, Musk's Twitter played a crucial role in helping Trump win the election.
Now Musk is saying on Twitter that he wants to form a new party, which poses a tremendous threat to Trump.
Let's put it this way: if Musk wants to form a new party and gain political influence in the U.S., that's just a pipe dream; don't even think about it within the next ten years.
But if he wants to undermine Trump's efforts, it would be incredibly easy; Twitter's influence is significant. If he goes all out, it wouldn't be difficult for Trump to lose the midterm elections.
You have to know that in 2020, when Biden wanted to win the election, he first started by banning Trump on Twitter.
But this isn't the most important part; the most concerning aspect for Trump, which has become the focal point of his struggle with Musk, will be Musk's third core business, SpaceX, which is the space exploration company.
This was also the last straw that broke the camel's back in Musk's fallout with Trump.
Months ago, Musk had already confirmed with Trump that Isaacman, recommended by Musk, would be appointed as NASA's director, but a few days ago, Trump changed his mind.
This is a devastating blow to Musk.
Isaacman is Musk's close friend and is the key pawn he plans to use to penetrate NASA's decision-making layer.
Since Biden's era, Musk has accused NASA of awarding many contracts worth $12 billion for heavy rockets to Boeing, which has led to funding shortages for SpaceX's Starship project.
This is also a significant reason why Musk switched allegiance to the Democrats and ultimately pledged loyalty to Trump.
In Musk's view, Boeing is not even in the same league as him; over the years, they have frequently had accidents, whether it's losing a hatch or a tire. They can't even handle conventional projects, let alone innovate.
The most typical example is that in 2024, Boeing's space project ran into serious issues, and astronauts went to space but couldn't return. It was Musk who ultimately helped clean up the mess.
Controlling the NASA director's position is Musk's core strategy for competing for budget allocation rights.
NASA's annual budget is astonishing, reaching $25.3 billion in 2023. If Isaacman takes office, he could push for NASA to award many contracts to Musk's company.
At this point, you might say, 'Musk is the world's richest man with nearly $300 billion in wealth; would he care about $25.3 billion?'
You don't understand this; Musk's so-called wealth is all paper wealth. For example, Tesla's shares cannot all be liquidated. If he dares to sell shares, Tesla will immediately plummet.
So the actual funds Musk can mobilize at any time are only about 1%-2% of his wealth, which is around $3 to $5 billion.
So you can imagine how important NASA's annual budget of over $20 billion is to him.
Moreover, more critically, SpaceX represents the future for Musk, which is not profitable in the short term and requires long-term substantial investment.
Since its establishment, SpaceX has been losing money, only achieving quarterly profitability in 2023, with more than half of its revenue coming from government projects, namely NASA and Pentagon orders.
In 2024, Musk supports Trump's campaign for U.S. president. He has already figured out that in the next four years, Trump is unlikely to support new energy, but Musk doesn't care; what he wants is Trump's focus on supporting his space exploration company.
At that time, Musk and Trump must have reached an internal agreement that Trump, once elected, would:
First, appoint Musk's close friend as NASA director and transfer a large number of space orders to Musk;
Second, Trump promotes the Pentagon's space defense plan, assigning new projects to Musk to complete;
But now it's really life-threatening!
Not only are there no new projects for Musk, but NASA and the Pentagon have already initiated plans to look for alternative suppliers to replace Musk's company.
If he loses these government contracts, SpaceX won't just be unprofitable; his annual cash flow will plummet by 38%, directly facing bankruptcy risks!
Especially the $9 billion that Musk personally invested in Starship development, which may be unrecoverable due to a broken funding chain, leading to a stagnation in the commercialization process of reusable technology...
Actually, back in April this year, Trump felt that Musk was too strong and announced cuts to NASA's budget, which was essentially a warning to Musk.
As a result, Musk did not know when to restrain himself and went to the Pentagon to check the accounts and even attended military meetings, which infuriated Trump.
This isn't something I made up; media like The Atlantic have reported that the U.S. Secretary of Defense once angered Trump by inviting Musk to a Pentagon briefing.
Musk said, 'Aren't you supposed to give me more military contracts in the future? Didn't we agree on these projects?'
Trump angrily roared: 'What I give you is yours, and what I don't give you, you cannot take!'
In any case, it is a dramatic plot of gradually falling out. Musk's ignorance of the situation has made Trump feel a tremendous threat.
Trump said, 'Not only do you want to check the accounts, but you also want personnel authority and even run to the Pentagon to direct work. How dare you want military command authority!'
Only three months in, and you're already so arrogant; what will you be like in two years?
So I have always said, Musk ending up in this situation is not undeserved. If you were Trump, wouldn't you want to deal with him?
Even today, there are still people who think they can reconcile, which is really blind; how could Trump ever trust Musk again?
At that time, Trump only cut part of NASA's budget to tell Musk, 'Don't be too arrogant; you need to behave,' but Musk still didn't know when to back off.
Now it has come to the point where the previously agreed nomination of a NASA director has also disappeared.
This is an extremely heavy blow to Musk, meaning his control over the space industry chain is weakened.
Previously, he laid out 4,400 satellites through Starlink to establish near-Earth orbital dominance, requiring NASA to continue purchasing Starship launch services to sustain it.
Trump's backstab has allowed competitors like Boeing to regain NASA's support, causing SpaceX to lose the initiative in critical projects like lunar relay satellites and deep space communication networks.
And now what Trump needs to do is replace all projects that can be switched and completely eliminate Musk's influence.
Trump will say that he will follow through on his words in the future!
Just think about it.
Musk has personnel authority and arranges staffing for various departments in Trump's cabinet under the banner of layoffs, recommending various directors and ministers;
Musk has financial authority and arranges the budgets of various departments in Trump's cabinet under the banner of cost-cutting;
These two items have made all cabinet members extremely angry with Musk.
Musk also has influence on Twitter, and the space development plan represents future technology; he also wants to nominate the NASA director;
Musk also went to the Pentagon to guide work and sought to interfere with military command.
Then who is the president?
Trump, furious, said, 'If you want to be the executive vice president, I won't say anything, but now you want to replace me!'
So now the White House is taking emergency action to replace all projects given to SpaceX with other suppliers.
But can projects Musk is working on just be replaced?
It's extremely difficult; Musk's space exploration company is truly irreplaceable... at least for now.
I'll just mention a few aspects:
First, the absolute dominance of reusable rocket technology;
SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket has achieved 19 reuses, with a single launch cost of $62 million, only one-third of the cost of traditional rockets, like Boeing.
Currently, SpaceX monopolizes 72% of the U.S. commercial launch market, and losing Musk's support will directly halt NASA and military satellite deployment.
Second, Musk is the only private company capable of executing manned space missions;
Since the first launch of the Crew Dragon spacecraft in 2020, SpaceX has become NASA's only manned spaceflight contractor. If it were to cease operations, the U.S. would lose the ability to transport astronauts to the International Space Station!
Third, the strategic deterrence of the Star Shield satellite network;
The network of 400 spy satellites built in cooperation with U.S. intelligence agencies is called the Star Shield program.
This has become the core of the U.S. reconnaissance system, capable of monitoring global hotspots in real-time, such as Ukraine and Russia...
It can provide images with a resolution of 0.3 meters and instant communication relay capabilities, giving the Pentagon a one-sided transparency advantage over Russia.
Fourth, the absolute dominance of U.S. national security launches;
In 2024, the U.S. Space Force awarded SpaceX 9 secret launch contracts covering reconnaissance satellites and nuclear command satellite launch missions.
It can be said that this task can only be completed by SpaceX.
Fifth, global space supply chain discourse power control;
SpaceX dominates global near-Earth orbital resource development through high-density satellite launches.
For example, the Starlink satellite production reaches 3,000 units annually, accounting for 75% of the global total. Its laser link technology can reduce the U.S. military's tactical response time from hours to minutes!
I will just mention these five points; I won't go on about it. Otherwise, I could write 5,000 words and still not finish. I haven't even mentioned that Musk is the key player in the Artemis program, crucial for the rapid deployment of space militarization, and his Starlink has dealt a heavy blow to Russia on the Ukraine battlefield...
Anyway, I'll tell you, Musk's space exploration company is, in essence, the most important part of the U.S. military-industrial complex; it is a core component of it!
So every time I see Musk's satellite launch succeed and a bunch of people here cheering, I can't help but want to crawl through the internet and kick these sharks!
Well, then let's continue. This means Trump will definitely replace Musk's government collaboration, but the result is that it can't be replaced at all. So what now?
First, those who say Trump and Musk will reconcile should save their breath; they really have no political insight. If you have ever worked in a company, you wouldn't have such thoughts.
If I were Trump, I would do everything to limit Musk; if I can't replace him in the short term, I would gradually replace him, and as for the command, I would replace as much as possible.
In the next four years, there will be a relentless crackdown on Musk and a crazy support for Boeing, as Trump’s relationship with the old military-industrial complex has improved.
I will do everything I can to limit Musk's development.
If I were Trump, I would do this 100%; it wouldn't be too difficult because Musk has offended all factions, and all cabinet members want to deal with Musk.
So someone might ask, will Musk take his technology to Russia (actually, I'm not talking about Russia...)
Forget it; he might go to Russia to develop new energy vehicles, but taking space technology away is just wishful thinking.
Do you really think America is a shark? This is impossible!
Moreover, this technology integrates the entire industry chain; do you really think Musk can just pack his bags and leave?
So what does this mean for us?
I'll just say this: Musk does have a technological advantage, the most talked-about being rocket reusability technology.
China's reusable rockets have made significant breakthroughs in 2024, but there is still a considerable gap with Musk. I mentioned in an article last year that considering Musk's development, we still need about five more years to catch up with his technology.
The biggest threat to the collaboration between Trump and Musk is not Tesla, but space technology. My biggest concern last year was their deep cooperation in the space field, with Trump continuously allocating funds to him.
Although I predicted last year that the Trump-Musk combination would collapse, the risk is still substantial.
But I really didn't expect these two to escalate to this point so quickly; it's truly a blessing!
So I have always said, what can destroy the U.S. has never been China, but themselves...
Trump's attacks on Musk have just begun; just wait and see.
The U.S. may not be a shark, but these two are definitely sharks, especially Musk, who has really dug his own grave.
During Trump's first term, he experienced countless betrayals, and this time, upon returning, he primarily seeks loyalty; do you really think he can tolerate Musk?
Put yourself in his shoes and you will see, what kind of person Musk is; even if you give him the contract now, do you think he will appreciate you?
He will always think that Trump is ungrateful!
Trump said, 'If that's the case, don't blame me for being ruthless and leaving no survivors!'
