News-driven Factors

Industry Positive Catalyst: Today, Bitcoin broke through the $70,000 mark, leading to a widespread rally in altcoins. There have been significant announcement upgrades in this coin's sector recently, with market expectations that ecosystem airdrop activities will stimulate token demand.

On-chain Data Anomalies: A certain whale address was monitored buying 1.2 million tokens (approximately $238,000) continuously on June 10, triggering a follow-up influx.

Event Anticipation Speculation: The project team announced the launch of testnet version 2 on June 17, and the community exhibits FOMO sentiment regarding the technical upgrade.

Key Technical Signals

Breakthrough of Key Resistance: An effective breakthrough of the strong resistance level at 0.19690 on the daily level (previous high pressure), forming a "double bottom neckline breakout" structure, with volume increasing by 35% confirming validity.

Bullish Resonance Indicators:

RSI rises to 62, exiting the oversold zone, MACD forms a bullish crossover under water, with bar lines accelerating into the red.

Bollinger Bands widen, with prices stabilizing on the mid-line and moving towards the upper line at 0.23.

Time Window Alignment: After touching the 0.18000 support on June 5, it coincided with the Fibonacci 13-day reversal point, completing the accumulation of rebound momentum.

Market Projection and Trading Strategy

Short-term (within 1 week):

✅ Optimistic Scenario: If it holds the 0.19690 support, it will test 0.23096 (April 30 high), with a potential increase of 15%.

⚠️ Risk Scenario: If it falls below 0.18800, beware of a false breakout, possibly retesting the 0.18000 neckline.

Medium-term (before the end of June):

The decisive factor is the effectiveness of the testnet launch on June 17: If technical indicators exceed expectations, it may hit the 0.24-0.26 range (focus on the chip concentration area from April 24).

Be cautious of increased volatility risk on the options expiry date, June 23.

Trading Recommendation: At the current price, consider light positions for long (stop loss at 0.1880), increase positions if it breaks 0.2050; medium-term investors should wait for a pullback near 0.192 to gradually accumulate, with a target profit range of 0.228-0.235.

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