#CPI数据来袭 Tonight at 8:30, the US May CPI will be announced, and market sentiment has been extremely tense.
Many people say this is a signal of 'rising inflation', gold is going to surge, and the Federal Reserve won't be able to 'hold back'.
But is it really like that? Let's not rush to conclusions and break down the real logic behind this data.
First, the market expects the May CPI year-on-year to rebound to 2.5%, and core CPI also shows signs of rising. Many media outlets take this as evidence of a rebound in inflation. But don't forget, this rise is more a delayed reaction to Trump's tariffs, such as the price increases of taxed goods like clothing, home appliances, and new cars—this is not 'real consumption recovery', but 'forced price increases'.
Looking at the services sector, especially airline tickets and hotels, prices are still falling, and the reason is very realistic: people's wallets are not that full, and if they can stay home, they will; if they can avoid spending, they will. This indicates that true domestic demand has not yet recovered, and the price increase is not solid.
There are currently divisions within the Federal Reserve. Some believe that the inflationary pressure from tariffs should not be underestimated and preventive measures should be taken; however, others insist that this is just a short-term fluctuation and not worth changing the policy direction. Currently, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will not change interest rates this time, but whether there will be rate cuts in the second half of the year remains a big question.
Conclusion? **This round of inflation resembles a 'policy-induced' phenomenon rather than a result of economic recovery.
**If you are a trader, the most important thing right now is not to predict the direction, but to focus on volatility nodes and position accordingly. If the direction is right, you reap the rewards; if the direction is wrong, don’t cling to it, timely stop-loss is victory.
Want to learn more about the connection between the Federal Reserve, CPI, gold, and cryptocurrency assets? Be sure to follow me for timely insights into investment opportunities in macro policies.
