The Japanese government is releasing money like crazy! Is the "government debt leverage" behind the 50,000 yen nationwide spending?
1. Policy background: violent pull-up before the election
The Ishiba Shigeru regime suddenly launched an epic operation - abandoning the tax reduction plan and playing the game of nationwide spending. According to the Asahi Shimbun, the ruling party plans to give 50,000 yen (about 2,400 yuan) to each of the 126 million Japanese, with a total ammunition of 13 trillion yen. What does this number mean? It is equivalent to three times Japan's annual military expenditure, directly turning Keynesianism into "government debt leverage", and 43% of funds rely on issuing bonds
2. Controversy focus: the battlefield of the leeks
This wave of operations directly split the market into two factions: those born in the 1960s are crazy about shouting orders, and those born in the 1930s are desperately shorting. NHK data shows that 42% of the 60+ group support the spending (after all, it's great to get air conditioning for free), while only 21% of those under 30 buy it (50,000 yen is not enough to pay half a month's rent). What's even more outrageous is that foreigners in Japan can also receive money. Just 3.6 million foreigners will consume 360 billion yen - no wonder the opposition party directly criticized "using taxpayers' money to buy votes"
Third, the deep logic: the death spiral of the debt game
Shigeru Ishiba shouted "national crisis" but played with the balance sheet of the Bank of Japan. The latest data shows that Japan's debt/GDP ratio has exceeded 250%, and the annual government bond interest alone will consume 30% of fiscal expenditure. Now they dare to use the 130 trillion yen debt pot to increase leverage, which is clearly turning the MMT theory into "fiscal FUD"
Fourth, market impact: yen depreciation + government bond explosion double kill
Smart money has already voted with its feet - the US dollar against the yen broke through the key level of 160. What's more terrifying is that the yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds soared to 1.2%, a record high since 1990. This wave of operations directly led to two results:
Overseas capital accelerated its withdrawal from Japanese bonds (yield inversion exceeded 300 basis points of US bonds)
The Bank of Japan was forced to maintain the YCC policy (yield curve control), and fell into a deadlock of "protecting the exchange rate or protecting the government bonds"
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