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Weekly Review
From June 2 to June 9 this week, the maximum price of ice sugar orange was around $110,530, and the minimum was close to $100,372, with a fluctuation range of about 10%.
Observing the chip distribution map, there is a significant amount of trading around approximately 103,876, which will provide some support or pressure.
Analysis:
60,000-68,000 approximately 1.21 million coins;
76,000-89,000 approximately 1.24 million coins;
90,000-100,000 approximately 1.26 million coins;
The probability of not breaking below 95,000~100,000 in the short term is 80%;
Regarding important news
Economic news aspect
Federal Reserve monetary policy and interest rate cut expectations:
Citibank forecast: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 75 basis points this year, with cuts of 25 basis points each in September, October, and December; another 50 basis points cut is expected in January and March 2026.
Federal Reserve officials' statements:
Waller: Indicated that inflation is approaching the 2% target, and if tariffs remain stable, supports a rate cut later this year.
Goolsbee: Indicated that if trade policies no longer bring uncertainty, there is room for further rate cuts.
Morgan Stanley's view: Believes that the dollar will remain weak over the next 12 months, and that interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will exceed market expectations.
Impact of US politics on economic policy:
Trump's remarks:
Claiming that the results of the next Federal Reserve head appointment will be announced soon, and the candidate in his mind is a 'good Fed head' who will lower interest rates.
Pressuring Powell again, calling him 'Mr. Too Late,' urging a 100 basis point rate cut and suggesting 'no rate cuts, then change.'
Important economic data from the US:
Inflation data forecast: CPI data will be released this Wednesday, with a previous value of 2.3% and an expected value of 2.5%; core CPI previous value of 2.8%, expected value of 2.9%.
Employment data: May non-farm employment recorded 139,000, the lowest since February; the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%.
Global market performance and outlook:
US stock market: Last week, US stock indices closed at their highest levels since February, with the Dow rising 1.17%, the S&P 500 rising 1.5%, first breaking above the 6,000-point mark, and the Nasdaq rising 2.18%. On Monday, US stocks opened, with the Nasdaq up 0.4% and the S&P 500 up 0.01%.
Gold outlook: Bank of America believes that geopolitical uncertainty will support gold prices, which could reach $4,000/ounce by the end of the year.
Regarding crypto ecosystem news
Regulatory and policy dynamics:
United States:
(CLARITY Act) Update: An alternative amendment to the US Digital Asset Market Clarification Act (CLARITY Act) has been released, which will serve as the basis for the Republican review and revision by the House Financial Services Committee this Tuesday.
National Strategic Reserve Act: Republican Congressman Tim Burchett proposed HR 3798, aimed at establishing a national strategic BTC reserve in the US and writing it into federal law.
United Kingdom:
FCA Lifts Ban: The UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) announced lifting the ban on cryptocurrency notes (ETNs) to support growth and competitiveness in the UK.
Hong Kong:
Stablecoin regulation: The Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury, Hui Zhengyu, stated that the underlying of stablecoins is fiat currency, which can be used as a payment function in electronic asset form through technologies such as blockchain in the future.
Stablecoin issuers will be regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, with principles similar to traditional financial assets, and must complete redemption requests within one working day.
Virtual asset derivatives: Hui Zhengyu stated in response to a legislator's question that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is considering introducing virtual asset derivatives trading for professional investors and will formulate robust risk management measures.
ETF and capital flows:
US ETF capital flows:
BTC ETF: A net outflow of $131.6 million last week. However, over a longer period (within five weeks), the US spot BTC ETF recorded inflows of $9 billion, indicating that institutional demand remains strong.
ETH ETF: A net inflow of $281.3 million last week, with net inflows for 15 consecutive trading days, marking the longest net inflow period since November 2024.
Among them, BlackRock's ETHA had a net inflow of $249.3 million, and Grayscale's ETH had a net inflow of $25.2 million. BlackRock's ETHA has seen a net inflow for 10 consecutive days, with a cumulative inflow of $507 million.
Future product outlook: Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas expects a series of actively managed crypto ETFs to emerge in the winter of 2025, potentially featuring star fund managers.
Market and corporate dynamics:
Corporate BTC reserves and increases:
European Blockchain Group: Signed a €300 million capital increase agreement with asset management firm TOBAM, accelerating its BTC reserve company strategy.
MicroStrategy (Strategy): Increased holdings by 1,045 BTC last week at an average price of $105,426.
Corporate allocation narrative: Analyst Min Jung pointed out that price support above $105,000 mainly comes from institutional increases in corporate BTC reserves, with more and more US companies beginning to emulate Strategy's approach.
Performance of listed companies and IPOs:
Performance of crypto stocks: The total market capitalization of publicly listed crypto companies has now exceeded $300 billion, with crypto stocks breaking away from BTC's lackluster performance, indicating strong market demand showing that institutional capital is making directional bets.
Circle's listing performance: Circle listed on the NYSE and saw a cumulative increase of 340% over three days, reaching a market capitalization of $30 billion.
IPO trends: Analysts expect a surge of crypto companies to go public in the US stock market this year, which could 'forge outward' to replenish liquidity in the coin market.
Market analysis and viewpoints:
BTC market analysis:
CryptoQuant analyst Oro: BTC has achieved a market capitalization reaching a new historical high of $934.88 billion, reflecting the total capital entering the BTC market through real on-chain activity, strengthening long-term confidence in the market.
Kronos Research analyst Dominick John: BTC being able to rise above $105,000 indicates strength, but the market structure remains fragile; the fear and greed index reports 55, with a wait-and-see sentiment dominating the market, awaiting macro catalysts or trend confirmation.
10x Research: Points out that while institutional demand is strong, profit-taking by long-term holders increases price pressure.
BTC treasury company debt issues: Galaxy Research director Alex Thorn stated that concerns about BTC financial companies and their debt becoming problematic are exaggerated.
In terms of overall scale, these companies' debts are not large, and most debts will not mature for more than two years (most between 2027 and 2030).
Long-term insights: Used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Medium-term exploration: Used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.
Short-term observation: Used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the likelihood of certain events occurring under certain premises
Long-term insights
US crypto ETF positions
Whale transfer positions at exchanges
Total spot selling pressure
Long-term participants for over six months
Average holding cost of short-term speculators
When macro interest rate cut expectations collide with the wave of industrial IPOs (dual circulation), and the crypto market's price is stuck in consolidation at high positions, it raises concerns about 'structural fragility.'
Evidence of structural buying
(Below: US crypto ETF positions)
After a brief adjustment, it returns to net inflow, which is the most direct quantitative reflection of the 'external large cycle.'
Wall Street's compliance capital is continuously entering the crypto battlefield as a disciplined and long-term-oriented 'regular army.'
At the same time;
(Below: Whale transfer positions at exchanges)
Exhibiting astonishing net outflows.
After completing whale purchases at exchanges, these whales transfer the chips to cold wallets controlled by private keys, a significant move.
This represents large capital expressing optimism about the future through actions.
These two forces together form the market's demand bottom line—hard, durable, and insensitive to intraday price fluctuations.
Deconstructing high position consolidation
Rational exiters:
(Below: Total spot selling pressure)
Indicators have not shown panic spikes, but rather remain relatively controlled.
This indicates that sellers are not bearish, but rather—those long-term investors who entered early and made substantial profits are rationally realizing their profits.
The current consolidation essentially represents ETFs and new whales taking over the chips from early investors with their ample capital, stabilizing at high positions.
This is a turnover, transferring the chips from hands that may become unstable due to huge floating profits to new owners with stronger capital and longer-term goals.
Precisely because of this;
(Below: Long-term participants for over six months)
The proportion is not only not decreasing but is rising, breaking through a historical high of 51% because the total number of 'long-termists' in the market has been consolidated and strengthened during this transition.
The birth of a new market bottom
The most far-reaching effect is the reshaping of the market's cost structure and psychological bottom line.
(Below: Average holding cost of short-term speculators)
Raised to approximately $97,479.
Represents the densest cost center in this cycle, built by ETFs, whales, and new retail investors.
Here is being forged into a new base.
Comprehensive evidence from all on-chain and news sources leads to a medium to long-term outlook:
1. Basic scenario outlook: Steady rise after structural consolidation (high probability)
Core logic: The current 'high position turnover' and 'cost center elevation' will continue. The market will remain in consolidation within the current price range, possibly lasting several weeks to months.
Evolution Path:
Absorption phase: The market's structural buying (ETFs, whales) will continue to absorb the profit-taking selling pressure from early investors. The total spot selling pressure indicator will remain at a controllable low level or further decrease.
Supply exhaustion: As turnover continues, long-term holders willing to sell at the current price range gradually decrease, leading to natural exhaustion on the supply side.
Breakthrough opportunity: When supply pressure significantly weakens, even the current scale of structural buying will be sufficient to push prices through the current consolidation range, initiating the next round of increases. Clear macro signals for interest rate cuts or major positive news from 'internal circulation' (such as large enterprises announcing the adoption of BTC as a reserve asset) will act as catalysts for this breakthrough.
Performance:
Price floors are constantly being solidified, forming a highly resilient price platform centered around $97k.
The subsequent rise will be healthier and more sustainable because floating chips have been sufficiently cleaned out.
2. Uptrend scenario outlook: Demand acceleration, early breakthrough (medium probability)
Trigger Conditions:
External circulation enhancement: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations management shows unexpectedly dovish signals, or inflation data is significantly lower than expected, leading to a substantial warming of macro liquidity expectations.
Internal circulation acceleration: Following Circle, another or several heavyweight crypto companies announce IPOs and receive a warm market response; or a company listed in the S&P 500 announces the addition of Bitcoin to its balance sheet, triggering rapid fermentation of the 'corporate reserve narrative.'
Evolution Path:
Any of the aforementioned catalysts could lead to a significant increase in the inflow of US crypto ETF positions or trigger a new wave of whale accumulation.
This sudden increase in demand will quickly break the current fragile supply-demand balance, skipping the lengthy consolidation absorption phase and directly overwhelming the supply side.
3. Risk scenario outlook: Demand disruption, deep correction (slightly lower probability)
Trigger Conditions:
Macro Risk: US CPI data consistently exceeding expectations leads to a reversal in market pricing for interest rate cuts, even triggering concerns about interest rate hikes, thus tightening macro liquidity.
Regulatory Risk: Unexpectedly severe negative regulatory actions targeting core crypto infrastructure (such as major exchanges and stablecoin issuers).
Internal demand disruption: There is a continuous and large-scale net outflow from US crypto ETF positions without obvious negative catalysts, indicating unknown endogenous issues with institutional demand.
Evolution Path:
Once the core driving force of structural buying (ETFs) stops or reverses, the market's 'absorption sponge' will fail.
Ongoing profit-taking selling will directly impact the market, causing prices to effectively drop below the cost center of short-term speculators ($97k).
Breaking below key support levels will trigger large-scale stop-loss orders and derivatives liquidations, leading to a negative spiral and a deeper market correction.
Performance:
Prices will experience a rapid decline of 15-25% or even more, and will be dull and powerless, breaking the current structural bull market pattern, necessitating a longer time for the market to restore confidence and rebuild the bottom.
Medium-term exploration
Derivatives liquidation structure
Liquidity supply amount
Net position of total stablecoin supply
Network sentiment positivity
BTC exchange trend net position
ETH exchange trend net position
(Below: Derivatives liquidation structure)
There has been a significant amount of short liquidation recently.
Currently, the extent of short liquidations is gradually decreasing, possibly transitioning to a long liquidation structure.
Currently, the weight of derivatives is rising due to the prevailing stock environment.
At the same time, the current stage is at a high level of stock, and the competition on-site is intensifying.
If only referring to the liquidation structure chart.
Short-term fluctuation strategies may be more likely to fail; rather, some relatively medium-short term small-scale strategies may be more effective.
(Below: Liquidity supply amount)
Recent signs show a slight rebound in liquidity supply, indicating that the liquidity conditions on-site have not further deteriorated.
Recent trends of weakening liquidity are slowing down.
The current market price may have some liquidity support.
(Below: Net position of total stablecoin supply)
Stablecoin supply shows slight signs of recovery, with previous growth rates slowing down.
If the situation on-site persists, it may be brewing an incremental market.
(Below: Network sentiment positivity)
After network sentiment dipped to an extreme, there are currently slight signs of turning around, suggesting that the sentiment of on-site participants has not further deteriorated.
(Below: Net position of BTC exchanges)
Currently, the accumulation rate of BTC has slowed, but a stable coin-holding structure has formed.
(Below: ETH exchange trend net position)
The coin-holding structure of ETH is not very firm, and there are significant fluctuations in the volume of coins within exchanges; BTC's coin-holding effect may be better, with a more solid price.
Short-term observation
Derivatives risk coefficient
Options implied trading ratio
Derivatives trading volume
Options implied volatility
Profit and loss transfer volume
New addresses and active addresses
Net position of the BTC Exchange
Net position of the Auntie Exchange
High-weighted selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Net position of stablecoin exchanges
Derivatives rating: Risk coefficient is in the red zone, derivatives risk is high.
(Below: Derivatives risk coefficient)
After hovering in the neutral zone, the derivatives risk coefficient briefly touched the green zone (while the market also hit a short-term low) before undergoing a short squeeze, and the current risk coefficient has thus reached the red zone. This week, from the perspective of derivatives, the market may have limited continuous short squeeze levels.
(Below: Options implied trading ratio)
The proportion of bearish options is at the median, with trading volume at a low level.
(Below: Derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives trading volume is at the median.
(Below: Options implied volatility)
Short-term implied volatility of options has only slight fluctuations.
Sentiment state rating: Neutral
(Below: Profit and loss transfer volume)
Last week's slight market correction had only a minimal amount of panic chips for sale; the current market price has rebounded, yet the market's positive sentiment has not significantly recovered. Overall, the market sentiment remains relatively neutral and cautious.
(Below: New addresses and active addresses)
New active addresses are at a medium-low level.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC is in a continuous large outflow status, while ETH has a small inflow.
(Below: Net position of the BTC Exchange)
Currently, BTC continues to experience large outflows.
(Below: Net position of ETH exchanges)
As ETH prices rebound, there are slight inflows in net positions within ETH exchanges.
(Below: High-weighted selling pressure)
ETH has some high-weighted selling pressure.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has slightly decreased, stablecoin purchasing power is flat compared to last week.
(Below: Global purchasing power status)
Global purchasing power has slightly decreased but remains positive.
(Below: Net position of USDT exchanges)
Stablecoin purchasing power is flat compared to last week.
Weekly Summary:
News summary:
First, external large circulation—macroeconomic and compliance
The opening of macro liquidity.
From the clear predictions of major Wall Street firms (Citigroup, Morgan Stanley) to the ongoing pressure from the US political scene, and the dovish turn of Federal Reserve officials, all signals point in one direction:
The interest rate cut cycle is about to begin. This is the prelude to a 'great watering' of global risk assets and the most solid macro support for the crypto market.
Global regulatory dredging.
The advancement of the US (CLARITY Act), the lifting of the UK ETN ban, and Hong Kong's clear plans for stablecoins and derivatives are no longer sporadic positives, but are instead collectively constructing a 'compliance road' that allows mainstream capital to safely and massively flow into the crypto world.
This external large cycle ensures that the market's 'water source' is abundant and 'waterway' is smooth, providing strong long-term bottom support for prices.
Second, internal small circulation—opening up industrial capitalization
Marked by Circle's 340% surge in its first three days of listing on the NYSE, crypto-native companies are launching an unprecedented IPO wave.
By entering the US stock market, a broader capital ocean, raising massive funds, and then funneling these funds back into the crypto ecosystem for technological research, market expansion, and liquidity supplementation.
This has allowed the crypto market to possess a 'self-generating' capability that does not rely entirely on macro liquidity. It has created a 'reverse blood transfusion' pipeline from traditional finance to crypto finance, greatly enhancing the resilience and development potential of the entire ecosystem.
Third, new market characteristics and outlook under dual circulation
The market's 'fragility' and 'wait-and-see';
This is the result of the fierce competition between the new and old paradigms and multiple forces (institutional buying, corporate allocation, early investor selling) at high positions.
The market is no longer 'rising and falling together.'
The performance between BTC (market beta), ETH (ecological leader), and crypto stocks (industrial value) will continue to diverge.
For investors, this means the need for a more professional perspective on 'industry analysis' to identify the key beneficiaries in different cycles.
"Dual circulation" mode means that market rises will be more sustainable and less influenced by extreme impacts from single events.
A more mature 'slow bull' pattern driven by industrial fundamentals is replacing the past 'mad bull.'
Long-term on-chain insights:
Overall, the basic scenario (steady rise after structural consolidation) has the highest probability, as it aligns best with current on-chain data and macro context.
The intrinsic structure of the market is becoming stronger, providing a solid foundation for a medium to long-term optimistic outlook.
However, investors must closely monitor core risk points, especially changes in institutional demand (ETF fund flows), as a key signal for determining whether market trends undergo fundamental changes.
Market tone:
The market currently appears relatively healthy.
On-chain medium-term exploration:
Weakening of short liquidations may shift towards long; derivatives weights are rising, and on-site competition is fierce; short-term strategies are failing, making medium-long term more favorable.
Liquidity supply has slightly rebounded, with conditions not worsening, trends weakening, and market prices having support.
Stablecoin supply shows slight recovery, growth rate contraction is slowing down, possibly brewing an incremental market.
Network sentiment peaked and then slightly rebounded, with no further deterioration in participant sentiment.
The accumulation speed of BTC has slowed, but a stable coin-holding structure has formed, supporting prices.
ETH's coin-holding structure is unstable, with significant variations in exchange coin volumes; BTC effects are better, with solid prices.
Market tone:
Improvement
Market liquidity is improving, sentiment is rebounding, and BTC is relatively stable. The current risk on-site lies in the extent of long liquidations.
On-chain short-term observation:
Risk coefficient is in the red zone, derivatives risk is high.
New active addresses are at a medium-low level.
Market sentiment state rating: Neutral.
Exchanges' net positions for BTC are in a continuous large outflow status, while ETH has a small inflow.
Global purchasing power has slightly decreased, and stablecoin purchasing power is flat compared to last week.
The probability of not breaking below 95,000~100,000 in the short term is 80%;
Market tone:
In the short term, overall market sentiment is relatively neutral and cautious, with no signs of frenzy; observing the chip chart shows that approximately 98% of chips are in profit. The most important issue in the short term is whether market purchasing power or market sentiment can continue to grow. This week, the market is expected to be influenced by derivatives while leaning towards fluctuations, with a low probability of direct large retracements and significant short squeezes.
Risk warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations, which do not provide directional opinions for investment; please view with caution and guard against market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the 'WTR' Research Institute.
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