Based on the latest market dynamics and on-chain data as of June 2025, Bitcoin is indeed on the eve of a bull market outbreak, but it is necessary to make rational judgments combined with multiple factors. The following are key analyses and predictions:

I. Current Market Status and Core Support

1. Price and Technical Aspects: As of June 5, 2025, the Bitcoin price is approximately $105,031, up 10% from last month, but short-term volatility is increasing (daily fluctuation of 1%-2%). Technical Indicators: The 50-day moving average support is solid; if it breaks the resistance at $108,000, it may accelerate to $137,000; if it fails to hold the $103,000 support, it may retrace to $92,000. On-chain Activity: Daily active addresses average 735,000, daily transactions average 390,000-400,000, and the NVT ratio is 1.51 (below the bubble warning line of 2.2), indicating that valuation is supported by real demand.

2. Extreme Supply-Demand Tightening and Deepening Halving Effect: The daily new issuance is only 900 BTC, with 74% of circulating Bitcoin locked for over 2 years, and 75% having been 'asleep' for the past six months. Exchange reserves continue to see net outflows (for example, Binance's holdings decreased by 51,000 BTC in May). Institutional Accumulation: Whale addresses continue to accumulate during the downturn, with enterprise buyers like MicroStrategy planning to increase their holdings by over $50 billion by 2025.

II. Five Core Drivers of the Bull Market

1. Policy and Regulatory Dividends: Trump's Pro-Crypto Policies: Plans to establish a 'National Bitcoin Strategic Reserve,' promote companies to adopt fair value accounting standards, and end 'hostility towards crypto regulation' to attract sovereign funds (e.g., Saudi PIF, Abu Dhabi Fund). Global ETF Expansion: Net inflows for spot Bitcoin ETFs are expected to exceed $70 billion in 2025 (only $35 billion in 2024), and if Ethereum ETFs are approved, it will further drive market volatility.

2. Macroeconomic Support for Rate Cuts and a Weaker Dollar: The Fed's dovish shift reduces the dollar's attractiveness, accelerating capital inflow into crypto assets as an inflation hedge. The expectation of rate cuts in June has boosted market sentiment. Geopolitical Risk Demand: US-China trade frictions and the capital flow anxiety triggered by the yen's interest rate hikes strengthen Bitcoin's 'digital gold' attribute.

3. Technological Upgrades and Ecological Explosion: The Rise of Bitcoin DeFi: Layer 2 solutions like Stacks are expected to push Bitcoin DeFi's total value locked (TVL) to over $24 billion, creating new scenarios for staking returns. Ethereum and Solana Collaboration: Ethereum's Pectra upgrade increases throughput by 10 times, while Solana's Firedancer upgrade enhances performance, leading to a technological resonance among the three major assets.

4. Cyclical Patterns and Emotional Reversals: Post-halving Explosion Window: History shows that 12-18 months after halving is a price peak (validated in 2013, 2017, and 2021). After the halving in April 2024, Q3-Q4 2025 will be a critical peak period. Market Sentiment Repair: The Fear and Greed Index has risen to 50 (neutral), and the on-chain profit-taking ratio (SOPR ≈ 1.03) shows that holding confidence is solid, and we have not yet reached a frenzied selling stage.

5. Narrative Upgrades and Capital Diffusion: From Bitcoin to Altcoins: After Bitcoin breaks its previous high, liquidity spills into mainstream coins like ETH and SOL (ETH up 45% in 30 days, SOL targeted at $275). If altcoins fully activate, it will confirm the breadth of the bull market. New Asset Narratives Brewing: Corporate reserves (e.g., Apple, Google may follow Tesla), national strategic reserves (SBR), and other grand stories are reshaping Bitcoin's positioning.

III. Discrepancies and Consensus in Institutional Target Prices: The table below summarizes mainstream institutions' predictions for Bitcoin prices in 2025.

Institution/Individual Target Prices (in ten thousand USD) Core Logic Standard Chartered Bank 200 Continuous inflow of ETF funds, accelerated enterprise accumulation Bernstein 200 Trump's policies + sovereign funds entering, opening the 'infinite era' VanEck 180 Bull market peaks in Q1, reaches new highs in Q4 Galaxy Digital 185 Bitcoin's market cap will reach 20% of gold Arthur Hayes 250 Under the trend of de-globalization, Bitcoin becomes the ultimate value storage Conservative Technical Model 120-150 If it holds the $80,000 support, a stepwise slow bull pattern Consensus: Most institutions are bullish to $150,000-$200,000; aggressive models (like power laws) point to $300,000, but caution is needed for phase corrections.

IV. Risk Warning: Potential Variables in the Bull Market

1. Macro Black Swan: The probability of a US economic recession is 40%; if the S&P 500 drops more than 5% in a quarter, Bitcoin has a 73% probability of falling as well; escalating US-China tariff conflicts may trigger liquidity panic.

2. Regulatory Reversals and Cyclical Variations: If Trump's policies do not materialize (e.g., delay in SBR plans), it may trigger 'disappointment selling'; the miner surrender index has not bottomed out, and the adjustment cycle may be extended.

3. Market Structure Vulnerability: The current bull market relies on Bitcoin 'solo rising'; the trading volume of altcoins accounts for only 30% (down from 50% in 2021); if liquidity cannot spread, it may become a 'false bull market.'

V. Investment Strategy Recommendations: Short-term: Focus on a breakthrough signal at $105,000; if there is strong upward volume, consider increasing positions; a pullback to the $90,000-$92,000 range is an ideal buying opportunity. Mid-term: Allocate a combination of Bitcoin + Ethereum + Solana (proportion 5:3:2), betting on technological upgrades and ETF catalysts. Long-term: Adopt a dollar-cost averaging strategy to smooth volatility risks, with a stop-loss reference at the $74,000 bull-bear boundary, targeting above $150,000 for phased profit-taking.

Summary

The core conditions for a major Bitcoin bull market have basically been met: supply tightening, policy support, cyclical resonance, and technological upgrades. A target price of $150,000 to $200,000 has solid support. However, caution is needed regarding the 'Trump Policy Implementation Degree' and 'Macro Black Swan' variables. As on-chain data shows: 'The bull market grows amidst doubt'—the current market is in a critical phase of transitioning from skepticism to optimism; holding core positions is essential to welcome the breakout.