The Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecast for the United States for May 2025 will be released today, Wednesday, June 11. According to experts, the CPI for May may increase by 0.2% compared to the previous month, while the core CPI (excluding food and energy) may rise by 0.3% — the highest monthly increase in the past four months. Year-on-year, the core CPI is expected to reach 2.9%, a slight increase from 2.8% in April.

Although oil prices remain stable, the imposition of high tariffs by the Trump administration has begun to affect the prices of goods, contributing to rising core inflation. Retailers like Walmart have raised prices since late May and early June as non-tariffed inventory has gradually decreased.

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% at the mid-June meeting, as the agency assesses the impact of tariffs on the economy.

If the CPI for May is higher than expected, this may raise expectations for the Fed to delay rate cuts. Conversely, if the CPI is lower than expected, the likelihood of the Fed continuing to cut interest rates will be higher, supporting economic growth.