Outlook on Altcoin ETFs: Opportunities and Risks Coexist
I. Market Status: The ETF Boom Drives the Legalization of Altcoins
In 2024-2025, the cryptocurrency ETF market is expected to experience explosive growth. The success of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs has paved the way for altcoin ETFs, with applications for Solana (SOL), XRP, Dogecoin (DOGE), and other altcoin ETFs being submitted in large numbers. Bloomberg and Polymarket estimate that the approval chances for assets like SOL and XRP range between 75%-90%, while the approval chances for Memecoins (such as DOGE and TRUMP) are relatively low.
• Key Developments:
• Solana ETF: Institutions such as VanEck, 21Shares, and Bitwise have submitted applications, and Grayscale plans to convert its Solana trust into a spot ETF.
• XRP ETF: Five institutions, including Grayscale, Bitwise, and Canary Capital, have submitted applications, and Grayscale's application to convert its XRP trust has been accepted.
• Dogecoin ETF: The DOGE ETF application submitted by Grayscale and NYSE Arca has been accepted by the SEC, with record approval speed.
II. Opportunities: Inflow of Funds and Increased Market Recognition
1. Institutional Fund Inflow:
• Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have attracted tens of billions of dollars in funds, and the approval of altcoin ETFs will further drive capital inflow into the crypto market.
• Analysts expect that the approval of the Solana ETF will bring an inflow of $3 billion to $6 billion.
2. Increased Market Recognition:
• The launch of ETFs will legitimize altcoins in traditional financial markets, attracting more investors to participate.
• The accelerated approval of the Dogecoin ETF has attracted market attention, with some funds shifting from mainstream coins to the altcoin market.
3. Technology and Application Scenarios:
• Solana, with its high-performance blockchain network and DeFi ecosystem, has become a highly regarded ETF candidate.
• XRP's application in cross-border payments supports its ETF approval prospects.
