Tonight at 7:30 PM (VN time), the US will release the CPI data
Forecast:
- CPI m/m: 0.2% (same as last time)
- Core CPI m/m: 0.3% (slightly up from last time's 0.2%)
- CPI y/y: 2.5% (higher than last time's 2.3%)
Scenarios and impact on BTC:
1️⃣ Scenario 1: CPI > Forecast (Inflation rises stronger than expected)
- The Fed may keep interest rates high for longer.
- The USD strengthens, bond yields rise.
- $BTC may face downward pressure, as funds are pulled from risk assets.
2️⃣ Scenario 2: CPI < Forecast (Inflation weaker than expected)
- The Fed may be close to cutting interest rates.
- The USD weakens, investors return to risk assets.
- BTC may rise sharply, thanks to expectations of funds returning to the crypto market.