How many $BTC are truly "dead"?

As of now, Bitcoin has been around for over a decade, but not all of the limited 21 million BTC are in circulation. A significant portion of that is considered to be “dead” – meaning it is no longer recoverable or usable.

According to estimates from Chainalysis and blockchain experts, about 3 to 4 million $BTC – equivalent to more than 15% of the total supply – are believed to be permanently lost. Common reasons include:

Lost private keys: Users forget wallet passwords, lose hard drives containing cold wallets, or use software that is no longer supported.

Inactive wallets: Many wallets from the early days (2009–2011) have never moved BTC, possibly because the owners have passed away or no longer remember they owned Bitcoin.

Sending to unrecoverable addresses or burning BTC to addresses without a private key.

Additionally, Satoshi Nakamoto's wallet – estimated to hold about 1 million BTC – has never been active for over a decade and may never be used.

This makes the actual supply of Bitcoin much scarcer than the initial figure of 21 million. That is also the reason why each $BTC is becoming increasingly valuable: not just because of the limited supply, but also due to the quiet "disappearance" of a significant portion of this digital asset.

In summary: The number of $BTC that are truly "dead" could reach 3–4 million, increasing scarcity and reinforcing Bitcoin's role as digital gold in the long term.