Ethereum Technical Analysis: Overbought Alert! 2800 Resistance Becomes the Battleground for Bulls and Bears
ETHUSDT Current Price $2796.54 | 2025-06-11 07:12:02
🔥 Key Conclusion: Short-term pullback risk increases, suggest positioning for short orders on rallies, closely monitor the breakthrough at 2800 resistance!
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Technical Analysis
1. Price Status
• Bollinger Bands: Price touches the upper band ($2820.76), Bollinger position 86.1% (overbought zone), significant pullback pressure.
• MA200: Current price deviates by 8.77% ($2571.12), high deviation, beware of mean reversion.
• Holding Cost: Deviates by 8.32% ($2581.78), profit taking pressure accumulates.
2. Market Strength
• Trading Volume: 24-hour volume increased by 50% (increase of 4.34%), but short-term net capital flow is negative (1h net outflow $8.6k), major players reduce holdings on rallies.
• Open Interest: 24-hour contract open interest increased by 16.48%, but long-short ratio dropped to 2.91 (bearish strength increases).
• Order Book: Selling pressure dominates (buy-sell ratio 1.87x), $1.43 million sell order liquidity wall accumulated at 2800-2808, with $2.44 million buy order support at 2780-2785.
3. Key Levels
• Resistance: $2800 (psychological barrier + liquidity wall), $2820 (Bollinger upper band).
• Support: $2780 (dense buyer area), $2750 (Fibonacci retracement level).
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Trading Strategy
1. Short Position Setup
• Entry: $2802 (when testing resistance fails)
• Stop Loss: $2825 (breakthrough of Bollinger upper band)
• Target: $2750 (risk-reward ratio 2.33:1)
= 52/23 ≈ 2.33
2. Long Position Condition: If volume breaks through $2825, chase long target $2880.
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Risk Warning
⚠️ Key Risks:
1. Regulatory favorable developments (advancement of the CLARITY Act or stimulate buying).
2. RSI overbought (75.22) but no divergence present, a sharp drop may trigger a liquidity gap.
Conditions for strategy failure:
• Price stabilizing above $2825 requires stopping loss on short positions and reversing to go long.
Operational Discipline:
▸ Position size ≤2% | Avoid low liquidity periods (such as Asian early session).
> Market Cycle: Mid-cycle consolidation in a bull market, strong demand for short-term overheating correction.
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