Market Research Summary: Focus on buying the dip in the second half of the year. Supplementing yesterday's viewpoint. Currently waiting for a pullback to buy, bullish in the next week.
Yesterday's future one-month black swan prediction supplement: Focus on buying the dip in the second half of the year, as all coins except BTC have already pulled back about 40% from their highs, while BTC has dropped less and risen more, making it better to manage risk by buying the dip. Bitcoin will pull back from currently around 110,000 to 107,000, then continue to break new highs reaching the 115,000 range, possibly hitting 125,000 in July. There remains a black swan risk within the next two months, and spot trading also requires good condition orders for profit-taking to avoid sudden large pullbacks.
SOL ETH DOGE will closely follow the trend of BTC, but BTC is the independent market with the highest and most stable cyclical returns. Change the bias that BTC yields less and is slow; the first step in healthy value growth in the current cycle is to avoid small altcoins and first-tier coins, as small altcoins are harder to manage than leverage. Rhythm: Wait for a 1-2 day pullback to build positions to go long, or establish a head position with a market price 1.5-2.2% lower, aiming for 5-10% long.
Reference range for small trend operations:
Long positions
SOL 156 155.7-156.4
BTC 107200 106900-107500
ETH 2590 2550-2610
DOGE 0.186 0.185-0.187
Short positions
SOL 177 176-179
BTC 115200 114900-116000
ETH 3080 3000-3150
DOGE 0.216 0.214-0.218
Current stop-loss suggestion
Buying price fluctuation 0.5%-1.1%
Take profit suggestion
Buying price fluctuation 2.2%-3.3%
Above profit-loss ratio reference 300%
Advanced operations:
After a transaction is profitable, adjust the stop-loss to a profitable position for pullback defense based on the situation, or use the cost line for stop-loss, or move the take profit. Ask if you don't understand.
Overall position management: Head position 5%, laddering into pullbacks to add positions 10%, adding positions for certainty trends 15%, reserving 20% for major opportunities to bottom-fish. High-level operations: 50% long-term funds in an account not participating in any trades, keeping a cash position for major opportunities. $SOL