Despite Ethereum's strong short-term price performance, technically breaking through previous range resistance, this upward movement is likely a 'false breakout driven by low liquidity.' The structural risks in the market have not been resolved; instead, a series of potential bearish factors are intertwining, creating a high-risk area that is about to correct.
🔍 1. Strong labor data → Interest rates 'pressure cooker' remains tight
The latest employment data has exceeded expectations across the board, with both labor participation rates and wage growth rising, intensifying market concerns about a 'rebound in inflation.' This further solidifies the Federal Reserve's stance on maintaining high interest rates, suppressing the valuation space for crypto assets. For Ethereum, this means that the cost of capital cannot decrease in the long term, and safe-haven assets will be prioritized, continuing to increase pressure on market risk appetite.
⚠️ 2. Political instability exacerbates risk premium for tech assets
Recently, there have been obvious fractures between the U.S. federal government and the California state government in terms of policy, cybersecurity, and fiscal spending. As the foundational layer of Web3, Ethereum's value system is closely connected to innovative applications such as DeFi, NFTs, and ZK, most of which are rooted in the San Francisco Bay Area. When the local political ecology is unstable, industry confidence, corporate investment, and regulatory support may face turbulence, potentially affecting on-chain innovation and expected capital investment.
📊 3. Weak on-chain data → Structural selling may be initiated
On-chain analysis shows that the number of recent L2 on-chain interactions and Gas usage for ETH are both trending downward, reflecting that actual user demand has not kept up with the market price rebound. Additionally, the net flow of ETH into centralized exchanges has turned positive, indicating that potential selling pressure has quietly brewed; at the same time, the open interest for put options in the options market has significantly increased, suggesting that bears have begun to position themselves.
🧠 4. Technical aspect shows 'bearish divergence' structure
From a technical perspective, although ETH has formed a breakout structure in the short term, momentum indicators such as RSI and MACD have not reached new highs simultaneously, exhibiting a typical 'bearish divergence.' If subsequent capital flows do not effectively follow through, a technical correction may occur, potentially triggering a high-leverage liquidation storm, causing a chain decline.
In the current environment, it is not advisable to chase long positions in Ethereum. The risk of overreaction is accumulating, and the market's 'delayed response' to interest rates, regulation, and political risks is likely to lead to a systemic correction in high-risk assets. As a more sensitive asset on the risk curve, Ethereum is unlikely to escape the constraints of the macro environment in the short term. For institutions and professional investors seeking stable performance, it is crucial to focus on leverage control and position hedging to reduce exposure to the risk of sharp declines.