The crypto market is always full of surprises, and Futures is the place that best reflects the psychological, technical, and global political economic battle. But playing Long or Short to have a high winning rate? This is a question not only for newcomers but also for professionals who have to ponder every day.
🔥 Understanding Both Sides: Long & Short
Long (Buy up): Expecting the price to rise, suitable when the market is excited, Bitcoin breaks the peak, and FOMO cash flow surges.
Short (Sell short): Expecting the price to fall, suitable when the market hits strong resistance, or before negative news such as interest rate hikes, tightening regulations from the SEC, etc.
🎯 Technical & Psychology: Short Dominates This Phase
DXY chart (USD index): Strengthening → selling pressure on the entire risk-on market, crypto is no exception.
Technical analysis: Many coins have broken the upward trendline, volume divergence decreases → clearer Short signal than Long.
Funding rate: Most are positive, meaning many are Long → the market tends to shake off the majority (meaning... down).
Crowd psychology: After a strong bull run at the beginning of the year, now is the time for the market to test trust again. Shorting in this phase is easier to "get on the wave early" than Long.
💼 Politics - Economics: Reasons to Prioritize Short
The FED has not lowered interest rates: Monetary policy remains tight, not supportive of risk capital.
Has the Bitcoin ETF been activated? Good news has already reflected in the price, now is the time to take profits.
War, geopolitical instability: Speculative capital will withdraw → the market is more likely to correct strongly than to continue rising.
✅ Conclusion: The Short side is more formidable at this time
No one forbids you from Long, but Long goes against the crowd psychology being "dumped". Meanwhile, Short is riding the defensive capital flow, using leverage to catch deep corrections – accurately, neatly, and with less risk if tight SL is applied.
📌 Trading Suggestions:
Coins that have pumped strongly and lost momentum like SOL, DOGE are very likely to drop → nice short.
Combine EMA 50/200, RSI, and volume to confirm the downward trend.
DCA Short according to the downward trend, set short TP, tight SL → high win rate.
Long when the trend is clear, Short when the market is in doubt. Now is the time for doubt to spread. Which side do you choose?
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