$ETH Evening Thoughts:
The resistance level of 2550 above the second contract has also been broken. It took 4 attempts to break through on the 5th try, which wasn't easy! When the second contract surges, no one can stop it. It can either be sluggish or soar to the sky, that's just how it is.
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Speaking with charts: The long wick of the candlestick indicated by the yellow arrow on the 4-hour chart shows that there is significant pressure above, and the corresponding volume below is also quite ample. This is a typical scenario of having volume without price. There must be both volume and price for a complete upward or downward candlestick; one cannot be missing.
When can the second contract break through the upward wick of this candlestick on the 4-hour chart? Only then can it truly take off.
When the second contract breaks through 2689 with volume, go long; if it breaks down at 2672 with volume, go short. Pay attention to changes in volume and set proper stop-losses.
If the second contract stabilizes above 2710 on the hourly chart, look upward at 2745-2800. Whether 2710 can be broken is crucial for the current stage of the second contract.
On the 4-hour chart, if 2654 is broken down, look down to 2606-2574. Rising is not easy, so don't let it drop again.
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Continuing with the chart: The second contract on the hourly chart needs to form a rounded bottom and cup-and-handle pattern. Although the upward volume below the second contract isn't very sufficient, as long as it doesn't break below the lower boundary of the cup handle, it will continue to rise. This rounded bottom and cup-and-handle pattern is a bullish formation.
So when can we short? The simplest way to short is to disregard any technical and news factors: when you notice that the bears you can reach are turning into bulls, that's when you can short. Why? Because the bears have surrendered, and if they are bullish, it indicates that the upward momentum in the short term has diminished. The bears are the only source of upward momentum for the market; once that energy is depleted, why would you still hold on to the bulls? I hope everyone understands this logic. Meeting adjourned.