⏰ As of June 10, 2025, 16:12 in the UTC+8 time zone, BTC in the perpetual contract 4-hour cycle continues to show a bullish dominant trend, demonstrating a typical structure of breakout – consolidation – re-accumulation. The following analysis is based on price behavior, moving average systems, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and multi-dimensional trading volume:
🔹 One, Price Structure and Morphology Analysis
The current price is accelerating upward after breaking through the Rising Wedge structure, forming a clear 'trend continuation breakout pattern,' accompanied by increased volume to validate its effectiveness.
After a rapid rise above, it enters a narrow high-level consolidation, initially forming a Bull Flag or short-term range, suggesting that it is still in a trend continuation phase.
The key support level below is located in the previous horizontal dense trading area (Volume Cluster) 106,800–107,200 USDT, which has both structural and chip significance.
🔹 Two, Moving Average System (EMA5 & EMA21)
EMA5 (gold line) has strongly crossed above EMA21 (blue line), forming a typical golden cross pattern, while the gap between the two continues to expand, reflecting enhanced short-term price momentum.
The current candlestick continues to operate above EMA5, indicating that the price is in a super strong inertia-driven range in the short term.
If the price subsequently pulls back to EMA5 or even EMA21 without breaking, it will constitute 'dynamic support' and maintain the basis for the continuation of the upward trend.
🔹 Three, Relative Strength Index RSI (14)
The RSI main line (white line) is currently at 68.41, approaching the technical overbought threshold (70), indicating technical pullback pressure in the short term.
The RSI moving average (yellow) serves as its benchmark moving average, currently forming a divergence expansion structure with the main line, indicating that momentum is in a high-pressure state, but there are slight signs of momentum divergence.
If the main line subsequently breaks below the RSI MA while the price fails to create a new high, it will form a bearish divergence, necessitating increased risk awareness.
🔹 Four, Volume Structure (Volume Profile)
The breakout point of the wedge's upper edge is accompanied by significant volume (green volume bars), validating the bullish breakout as effective (Valid Breakout).
Subsequently, during the oscillation period, the volume continues to decrease, and the corresponding red volume bars during the decline are small, indicating that this is currently a volume-contracted pullback and has not formed a substantial reversal signal.
If the price consolidates while the volume continues to decrease, it can be seen as an energy accumulation phase before a trend change (Volume Contraction Before Expansion).
📌 Five, Comprehensive Technical Conclusions and Trading Tips (Not Investment Advice)
✅ Currently in a short-term high-level consolidation period within a bullish trend, the volume-price structure is reasonable, and the trend has not yet been damaged;
⚠ RSI is nearing the overbought zone, compounded by potential divergence in momentum indicators, indicating short-term technical adjustment risks;
🧭 Key support to watch is in the 106,800–107,200 range; if it stabilizes effectively and a strong bullish candle appears, it will be a reasonable point to add positions;
❗ If the price loses the EMA21 and the trading volume increases, it constitutes a trend reversal signal, requiring timely position reduction or profit taking.
🟢 Technical Summary:
BTC is currently in a continuation phase of a strong trend; if the trading volume supports a breakout above the flag's upper rail, it may lead to a new round of trend-driven upward movement; conversely, if it loses key dynamic support, the market will enter a high-level oscillation or adjustment phase.
