1. Current price and key breakout

  • Latest price: Bitcoin broke through $110,000 today (as of June 10 data), reaching a high of $111,000, only about 1.62% away from the historical high of $111,980 in May.

  • Short-term trend: A rebound of nearly 9% from the low of $101,000 on June 5, with significant increase in daily trading volume, driving a comprehensive recovery in the cryptocurrency market (mainstream coins like ETH and SOL rising by 4%-5% simultaneously).

2. Key price levels for bulls and bears

  • Support level:

    • $103,700 (95% holding cost line): A drop below may trigger short-term selling.

    • $100,000: Key psychological and liquidity support; losing this level could lead to a deeper correction to $97,500 (institutional cost zone).

  • Resistance level:

    • $106,265: A resistance level tested multiple times recently, breaking through may accelerate an increase to $108,000~$112,000.

    • Historical high of $112,000: Breaking through will open up upward space and trigger short-covering (if rising over 10%, may liquidate $15 billion in short positions).

3. Market driving factors

  • Policy benefits:

    • SEC regulatory shift: The new chairman supports self-custody and on-chain innovation, denying the predecessor's hardline policies, accelerating the industry's compliance process.

    • China-U.S. trade easing: Risk appetite is rising, with Bitcoin having both 'digital gold' safe-haven and risk asset properties, attracting capital inflows.

  • Technical signals:

    • The 50-day moving average crossing above the 30-day moving average forms a 'golden cross', historically indicating a bull market cycle.

    • Negative funding rate (-0.02%) and a surge in spot demand create a high-confidence breakout signal.

  • Institutional dynamics:

    • Although Bitcoin spot ETF has seen a net outflow in the past seven days, Ethereum ETF has had a net inflow for 15 consecutive days, indicating differentiated institutional allocation.

    • MicroStrategy's unrealized gains exceed $23 billion, with giants like BlackRock continuing to increase their positions.

4. Potential risk warnings

  • Short-term selling pressure: Long-term holders (LTH) have recently continued to reduce positions, which may suppress price rebounds.

  • Impact of macro data: U.S. CPI/PPI data for May will be released this week (June 11-12); if inflation exceeds expectations, it may reinforce the Fed's hawkish stance, delaying rate cut expectations (current probability of a September rate cut is only 25%).

  • Liquidity gap: A drop below $101,000 may trigger $934 million in long position liquidations, exacerbating the decline.

5. Future trend predictions

  • Short-term (1-3 days):

    • If it can stabilize at $106,265, the target is $108,000~$112,000.

    • If it loses $103,700, it may test the support range of $100,000~$101,000.

  • Medium-term (June): The market generally expects to break through $120,000 in June, with seasonal patterns (April-October being traditionally strong) resonating with technicals.

  • Long-term (end of 2025): Deepening institutionalization and policy dividends drive the target to $150,000~$180,000.

Summary

On June 10, Bitcoin broke through $110,000, continuing a strong rebound, but attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the $106,265 resistance level and the strength of the $103,700 support. The policy shift (SEC), differentiated institutional capital (ETF inflow), and technical benefits (golden cross, seasonality) form the basis for upward movement, while short-term selling pressure (LTH reduction) and macro data (CPI/FOMC) may cause volatility. Investors are advised to closely monitor key price breakout signals and manage risks effectively.



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