Current situation (June 10, 2025):
- Price: ~$3.00–$3.20 (USD, based on current data).
- Context: TON is a decentralized first-layer blockchain originally developed by Telegram, now managed by the TON Foundation. Integrated with Telegram (950 million+ users), it supports mini-apps, DeFi, NFTs, and payments. Market capitalization: ~$7.5–$8 billion (rank ~23). TVL in DeFi: ~$700–$800 million.
Technical forecast for 2026:
- Prices (based on analytics):
- Optimistic: $5–$10 (growth of 60–200%) in a bullish market and ecosystem development (GameFi, DeFi).
- Neutral: $3.65–$5.48 (growth of 20–80%).
- Pessimistic: $2–$3 in case of market correction or regulatory restrictions.
- Levels:
- Support: $2.80–$3.00, $2–$2.50.
- Resistance: $3.50–$4.00, $5–$6.60.
- Trend: Bullish on long-term timeframes (W1, MN). RSI (~45–60) is neutral, 50/200 MA is bullish, but a correction is possible (MACD shows a slowdown).
Fundamentals:
- Growth drivers:
- Integration with Telegram: mini-apps (Hamster Kombat, Notcoin) attract millions of users.
- Partnerships: Libre (BlackRock, $500 million tokenized bonds), Tether (XAUt on TON), xAI ($300 million potential deal with Grok).)
- DeFi and NFT: TVL increased to $776 million in 2024, TON is #1/#2 by NFT trading volume.
- Appointment of Nikola Plechas (ex-Visa) for payment infrastructure development.
- EVM compatibility through TAC attracts Ethereum developers.
- BTC halving in 2024 supports altcoins.
- Risks:
- Regulation: SEC considers TON a security, the arrest of Durov (2024) added uncertainty.
- Competition: Solana, BNB Chain, Polygon.
- Volatility: token unlock ($320 million in 2025), whale selling.
- Declining activity: monthly users fell from 10 million (2024) to 3.65 million.
Recommendation:
- Investors: Buy on correction to $2.80–$3.00, stop below $2. Target: $5–$10. Staking (APR ~5–8%) for passive income.
- Traders: Buy on breakout at $4, target $6.60–$7.80. Sell below $2.80, target $2–$2.50.
- Risk: 1–2% of the deposit, consider high volatility.
Risks: Regulation, competition, declining activity, BTC drop.
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