In-depth Analysis of Bitcoin Market on June 10:
Technical Breakthrough and Macroeconomic Risk Game
1. Technical Analysis: Failure of Double Top Pattern and Weekly Level Breakthrough
① Potential Failure of Double Top Pattern: Previously, the market was concerned that Bitcoin might form a double top pattern (with two peaks around $110,000). However, if the price can stabilize above $110,000 again, this bearish structure will be invalidated, possibly initiating a new upward cycle.
② Weekly Level Key Breakthrough: Bitcoin has currently broken through the $105,000 resistance. If it further stabilizes above $110,000, it may challenge the historical high of $111,980 from May and open up upward space to the $120,000-$130,000 range.
③ Short-term Support on Pullback: If the price pulls back near $107,000 without breaking below, it can be regarded as a short-term support level, suitable for phased accumulation, with a stop-loss set at $102,000 (100-day moving average and Fibonacci 0.786 support).
2. Market Sentiment and Fund Flows
① Continued Institutional Buying: Recently, Bitcoin ETF inflows have been strong, with a net inflow of about $4.2 billion in May. Institutional investors (such as MicroStrategy) are still increasing their Bitcoin holdings, supporting market confidence.
② Macroeconomic Impact: A weakening US dollar index (DXY) may boost Bitcoin's rise. Some analysts predict that if the financial environment remains loose, Bitcoin could challenge $123,000 in June.
③ Cross-Market Correlation Risk: The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index is as high as 0.75. If US stocks continue to pull back (e.g., S&P 500 falls below 5,200 points), it may drag down Bitcoin's performance.
3. Potential Risks and Key Observation Points
① Double Top Pattern Not Fully Invalidated: If it fails to stabilize above $110,000 and breaks below the neckline support (around $107,000), it may trigger a pullback to the $102,000 to $98,000 range!
② Monthly Level Peak Signal: Some analysts expect a potential phase peak in late June, requiring attention to RSI overbought conditions (current daily RSI 52), MACD momentum changes, and KDJ overbought conditions and other potential risks!
③ Leverage Liquidation Risk: Recently, the amount of liquidations in the market has surged (over $1 billion liquidated in 24 hours). If prices quickly retreat, it could trigger a chain liquidation, exacerbating volatility.
4. Trading Strategy and Operational Recommendations
① Bullish Conditions:
Stabilizing above $110,000 + Pullback not breaking $107,000 → Can continue to hold or increase positions. Target: Short-term $112,000, Mid-term $130,900 (1.618 Fibonacci extension).
② Bearish Signals:
Falling below the $102,000 stop-loss → Must be wary of deeper pullbacks, possibly testing the $97,000-$93,000 support.
③ Mid to Long-term Outlook: If the breakthrough is successful, the year-end target could reach $150,000-$200,000, but one must be wary of high volatility.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is currently in a critical breakthrough window, with a bullish technical outlook, but caution is needed regarding macro market correlation risks. Traders should closely monitor the $110,000 threshold and support on pullbacks, flexibly adjust positions, and guard against possible monthly peak risks in late June.
(Note: The above analysis does not constitute investment advice and should be adjusted in conjunction with real-time market conditions and on-chain data.)#Strategy增持比特币 $BTC