First, key point: The next 'main upward wave' target for BTC is set at 135,000. If it doesn’t arrive in June – don’t rush, September is likely to take over! But before that, the market might want to play a bit of 'heartbeat' with us.
The weekly line has reached a phase high: sideways oscillation is the main theme.
From the weekly trend, BTC is close to touching the 'phase ceiling'. Even if the market is strong, it is highly likely to replicate the script of the end of 2023 – high-level sideways oscillation.
What does it mean? It means that the price will bounce back and forth within a relatively high range, allowing the market to digest emotions and give 'overbought' technical indicators a breather, waiting for the right moment to launch the next wave of upward movement.
The previous expectation of rising to 150,000 or 180,000 in June might need to be pushed back. A more reasonable rhythm is: entering a 2-month adjustment or oscillation period from June to July, with the real surge possibly waiting until September to October, which might also be the peak of this round of market movement. Once it tops, there will immediately be about a month of high-point selling period.
On the daily level: Beware of the 'high trap'; don’t chase after the bullish market!
It’s even harder to guess the short-term daily line. If it consolidates sideways, it will most likely repeatedly perform the 'high chase act':
It looks like it’s about to break through the previous high, but in reality, it’s a trap to lure in buyers. If you chase after it, you might get stuck – this wave of 'false breakout' is specifically designed to harvest the impatient.
The real opportunity lies in 'after a big drop': wait for the market to start declining; there may be a significant correction that directly breaks below the current oscillation range's 'bottom', or even develop into a pattern similar to 'M-head false breakdown'.
Key point: This is not a 'black swan'; rather, it’s a normal market adjustment, and it’s the only clear trend-based bottom-fishing opportunity in this round – certainty is at its peak!
Summary: Patiently wait for the rhythm; don’t be misled by short-term fluctuations.
Short-term: Don’t operate blindly based on daily charts; don’t chase after the highs or panic during declines. It’s easy to lose money if you get too eager during the sideways oscillation period.
Mid-term: June to July is likely to be a grind; the main upward wave is aiming for September to October, targeting 135,000. Wait for the weekly line to regain strength before taking action; that’s when the profit opportunity is stable.
Key signal: Focus on the bottom of the oscillation range and the 'M-head false breakdown' pattern. If it breaks down, don’t panic; instead, it’s a time to accumulate positions – provided you can withstand the heartbeat of short-term volatility.
The market is never a 'straight sprint'; understanding the rhythm is key to winning. In the next two months, rather than chasing rises and falls, it’s better to calm down and wait for that 'certain bottom-fishing signal' – after all, the real big market always favors those who are prepared.
Do you think BTC can reach 135,000 in September? Feel free to leave a comment to share your thoughts~#加密市场反弹 #比特币走势观察
