#USChinaTradeTalks

• What’s Happening?

Top US and Chinese trade officials are meeting in London for several days of talks. President Trump called them “promising.” Topics include tariffs, rare earth exports, tech licensing, and export controls. The 90-day tariff pause from Geneva expires in August, adding urgency.

• Progress or Uncertainty?

👉Some progress likely: Talks may yield small wins—like agreements on rare earths or tech access.

👉Big issues unresolved: Structural tensions around China’s state model and US export controls remain.

👉Risk of more uncertainty if no concrete steps emerge and the tariff pause lapses in August.

• Market Impact This Week

Asset Likely Reaction

▪️Stocks Modest gains if progress is made; Asia already rallied.

▪️Dollar Strengthens on positive tone or safe-haven demand.

▪️Commodities Rare earths volatile; gold may dip if sentiment improves.

▪️Bonds Yields could rise slightly on risk-on tone.

• Bottom Line:

Markets are cautiously optimistic. Any concrete steps—especially on tech and resources—could boost sentiment this week. But without deeper progress, uncertainty will return, especially as the August deadline nears.