Investment strategies attached at the end of the article

I. Disrupting perceptions: Is the myth of the four-year cycle being broken?


Over the past decade, the cryptocurrency market has followed the iron law of the 'four-year halving cycle': the peaks of bull markets in 2013, 2017, and 2021 all occurred 12-18 months after the halving. However, after the Bitcoin halving in 2024, the market did not experience the expected sharp rise and fall; instead, it exhibited a new characteristic of 'slow bull climbing, spiraling upwards.'


Three major signals confirm the reconstruction of the cycle:

  1. Institution-led, rational prosperity


    Traditional financial institutions (such as BlackRock, Fidelity) have continuously bought Bitcoin through ETFs, with net inflows exceeding $5 billion in May 2025 alone, far surpassing speculative trading led by retail investors.

  2. Macro anchoring, anti-inflation attributes strengthened


    Global M2 money supply has exceeded $93 trillion. In the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, Bitcoin, as 'digital gold', has been incorporated into institutional asset allocation models, significantly enhancing demand rigidity.

  3. Regulatory evolution, ecosystem expansion


    The U.S. (Genius Act) and Hong Kong (stablecoin regulations) are building compliance frameworks, with the market value of stablecoins exceeding $150 billion. On-chain settlement, RWA (real asset tokenization), and other scenarios are booming, with the market shifting from a 'casino' to 'financial infrastructure.'

II. Bitcoin at $150,000: Resonance between technical and fundamental aspects

Currently, the price of Bitcoin has stabilized at $105,000, and market sentiment has shifted from 'fear' to 'greed' (Fear and Greed Index 62). The technical indicators show a 'cup and handle' breakout signal, with analysts predicting $150,000 as the next target.

Core logic breakdown:

  • Supply-demand imbalance intensifies

  • The annual inflation rate of Bitcoin has dropped to 1.5%, miner selling pressure has weakened (MCTC ratio 6<10), while ETFs and national reserves (such as the Central Bank of El Salvador) continue to increase their holdings, expanding the supply-demand gap.

  • On-chain data verification:


    HODL Waves show that the long-term holding ratio remains stable at 54%, and new capital inflow has not dried up; the amount of open contracts remains at a high of $50 billion, but leverage has decreased by 30% compared to 2021, reducing the risk of sharp price fluctuations.

  • Market consensus upgrade:


    From 'trading medium' to 'value storage', Bitcoin has been included in the alternative asset portfolio of U.S. Treasury bonds, with allocation ratios from giants like Blackstone and Bridgewater exceeding 2%, forming a positive cycle between institutions and retail investors.

  • III. The underlying logic of long bull and slow bull markets: The 'de-retailization' of the crypto market


Unlike the madness of traditional bull markets, this round of market conditions presents a 'slow growth and win' characteristic:

  1. Capital structure optimization:


    The proportion of retail trading has decreased from 70% in 2021 to 45%. Institutions smooth volatility through derivatives and OTC markets, enhancing market stability.

  2. Application scenarios landing:


    The total locked value (TVL) in DeFi has returned to $80 billion, with Ethereum Layer 2 scaling driving a 90% reduction in transaction costs. The blood-generating ability of sectors like NFT and SocialFi has strengthened, breaking away from the label of 'pure speculation.'

  3. Global liquidity support:


    Major economies maintain a zero interest rate policy. The market value of Bitcoin compared to gold is only 0.8%. If it rises to 1:1, the price will exceed $1 million.

    IV. The breakthrough path for investors: from 'chasing highs and killing lows' to 'ecosystem layout'

In the face of a long bull and slow bull market, ordinary investors need to adjust their strategies:

Core allocation: Bitcoin + Ethereum should account for no less than 60%, with the investment period extended to 3-5 years;

Satellite positions: layout on-chain real-world asset projects (such as Ondo), DePIN (such as Helium), etc.;

Risk hedging: use inverse ETFs and options-based combinations to fend off black swans and avoid high leverage.

The old script of 'four-year cyclical' has been torn apart, and a new crypto world driven by institutions, compliance, and applications is emerging. When Bitcoin becomes the new norm at $150,000, are you ready to embrace this wealth paradigm revolution?


Take immediate action: pay attention to policy trends (such as the U.S. SEC ETF approvals), track the movements of on-chain whales, and win this marathon with time and understanding.

Focus on wheat and outperform the bull market!#中美贸易谈判