YunKun analyzes Ethereum (ETH) current market trends:
1. Market sentiment and key level psychology
First, I will focus on the support level of $2420. This position is not only a technical neckline but also a psychological 'watershed' for the market. If it falls below, it may trigger programmatic sell orders and retail panic selling, forming a 'self-fulfilling prophecy.' At this time, we need to be wary of the 'liquidity trap'—a weak rebound in a downtrend may attract shorts to increase their positions.
2. Layered support level analysis
First Defense Line $2250: This corresponds to the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level of the previous wave, and is also a common short-term stop-loss point for institutions. If it quickly breaks down, we need to assess whether there is a significant decline in volume (observe large on-chain transfer data).
Second Defense Line $2100: This is a strong support level on the weekly chart, meaning this is the cost zone for medium to long-term investors. A breach may trigger liquidations of staking positions, leading to widespread panic selling.
Extreme Scenario $1500: This is the trend line support extended from the bear market low in 2023, and it is also a strong support level on the monthly chart for this April. However, mentioning this level is more of a 'risk scenario simulation' and requires judgment of probability based on the macro environment (such as Federal Reserve interest rate policy and BTC ETF fund flows). Without significant negative factors, it is normally difficult to reach this position, but as investors, we also need to maintain a sense of awe for the market!
3. Technical and fundamental cross-validation
On-chain data: Check if there has been a large-scale unlocking of ETH2.0 staking (Glassnode data), as this may be a source of selling pressure.
Derivative Signals: If the perpetual contract funding rate remains negative, it reflects a bearish dominance, but extreme negative values may brew a short squeeze rebound.
4. Elegant crisis response suggestions
Scenario Planning: Develop advance strategies such as 'reduce position by 30% if it falls below $2420' and 'shift to stablecoins if it closes below $2100' to avoid emotional decision-making during trading.
Cross-market observation: The correlation between US tech stocks (especially AI-related) and ETH has increased, and movements in Nasdaq futures can provide leading signals.
Summary:
Currently, ETH is in a key game window, with $2420 being an important short-term turning point. If it deeply falls below $2100, positions can be built in batches, but a hard stop-loss must be set (e.g., exit if it falls below the previous low by 3%). As investors, we should embody the qualities of 'calm observation → layered response → strict discipline' to guard against systemic risks while capturing opportunities that are mispriced.
Remember: The market is always full of opportunities; what is lacking is the ability to protect the principal.
(Note: The above analysis does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly risky; please make decisions with caution based on individual risk tolerance.)
