Price level: Trading around $105,680 USD, holding firmly above the $105K threshold after intraday swings between ~$105,110 and $106,368.
Resistance Zones:
Immediate challenge near $107,500–109,500, with a short‑term resistance pocket around $106,482. Drops from these levels offer short-entry setups.
Higher resistance caps at around $108,300, reinforced by failed breakouts just above $112K last month.
Support Levels:
**$100,300** as the primary floor, followed by $98,500 and $97,669 marked as critical support zones.
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🔍 Market Sentiment & On‑Chain Indicators
Built Bullish Structure:
Over 62% of BTC supply has been dormant (>1 year)—a sign of “HODLing” confidence. Historically, this preceded further bull cycles above $100K.
Profit-taking Pressure:
Realized gains of ~$1.47 billion around May 25 fed short-term resistance.
Technical Ambiguity:
No clear trend signals so far—BTC is neither confirming reversal nor continuation. This quiet consolidation may precede a sharp move.
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🌐 Broader Macro & Structural Drivers
Institutional Activity: Growing accumulation from whales and institutions continues—one bank planned to acquire 210K BTC by 2027.
Policy Tailwinds:
U.S. government’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve formalized in March 2025 (≈200K BTC held), anchoring Bitcoin with sovereign backing.
SEC clarity on staking and ETF inflows (e.g. MicroStrategy) reinforce legitimacy.
Fibonacci Outlook: Long-range models point to next peaks between $173K–$458K, though expectation of lower returns could temper tops below $173K.
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🧭 Short-Term & Long-Term Outlook
Horizon Outlook
Next Few Days–Weeks Likely high volatility. Key pivots: remain above $100K to stay bullish. A break above $107.5–109.5K could unleash upside, while slipping below $100K may kick off a deeper pullback.
Medium Term (Quarter) Structural bullish posture holds as long-term HODLers and institutions continue accumulating. Historical patterns post-$100K suggest potential continuation into new highs.
Long Term (6–12 months) Potential surge towards $173K+ driven by Fibonacci & halving trends—but watch for trend slowdown, possibly capping the leg under trend exhaustion.
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🛠️ Tactical Takeaways
Swing Traders: Keep stops just below $100K, and set take-profits around $107–109K.
Long-Term Investors: Accumulation at dips near $100K could yield strong portfolio returns, given on-chain indicators and institutional trends.
Watch List:
Breakout above $108,300 to confirm bullish trend.
Sustained drop below $100K breaking chain of support may signal a deeper correction.
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🔮 Final Thought
Bitcoin currently sits at a crucial inflection point around $105K—with strong institutional and on-chain foundations in place. Immediate action depends on whether it can break resistance near $107–109K, or if it fails, hold above critical supports near $100K. Expect notable volatility in the coming days.