Recently, the so-called 'Meme Engine' Pump.fun on Solana has once again stirred the market. Rumors about its upcoming token have triggered strong risk-averse sentiment in an already fragile on-chain ecosystem. Some refer to it as a new benchmark in the attention economy; others label it as the 'number one toxic asset' in the Solana ecosystem.

So, is Pump.fun an untamed dark horse or the last frenzy of cryptocurrency FOMO culture? This token launch may well be the ultimate litmus test of its true value.

Here's the thing: Pump.fun reportedly plans to raise $1 billion through public and private token sales, with a valuation of up to $4 billion. This news has caused a stir in the Solana ecosystem, leading to a surge in risk-averse behavior. Although the official confirmation of the specific issuance date is pending, hints on their social accounts suggest that there may be action 'within two weeks'—just like their last statement.

In fact, this is not Pump.fun's first attempt to launch a token. Back in February, they considered a Dutch auction, but at that time, Trump and his wife launched their own MemeCoin, attracting all the attention and liquidity, and Pump.fun had to temporarily shelve its plans. Now, although the market has slightly warmed up, it has not yet returned to its peak momentum. This is not something we can easily judge—it needs to be viewed from the perspective of the market.

As of June 4, Pump.fun's cumulative revenue has exceeded $730 million. But hold on—since February, its daily revenue has plummeted from nearly $15 million at peak to only a few million dollars, effectively halving.

At the end of 2024, Pump.fun's weekly trading volume hit a record high of $3.3 billion. Nowadays, even reaching a weekly trading volume of $1 billion is worth celebrating. In short, liquidity and user activity have severely depleted after the initial 'boom'.

More concerning is that the number of tokens created daily has dropped from a peak of 70,000 to about 30,000. User interest in this 'dice-throwing' game is waning.

Pump.fun seems to be a fast track to financial freedom, but the reality is far from optimistic. According to Dune data, there were about 594,000 active wallets in May:

- Only 3.6% of users made more than $500 in profit;

- Only 0.1% of users earned more than $10,000;

- Only 27 wallets (about 0.0045%) netted over $100,000.

Meanwhile, 52.5% of users lost money, with some losing more than $1 million.

The logic is simple: the vast majority of users are the 'exit liquidity' for a few winners—just like in a casino, everyone thinks they will win, but most end up losing everything.

As rumors of the Pump.fun token intensify, Solana-based MemeCoins have taken a severe hit. Within 24 hours of the news breaking, major Solana MemeCoins recorded losses, and Artemis data shows that Solana ranks third among all chains for net capital outflows.

Essentially, Pump.fun's token plan is seen as an upcoming liquidity black hole—the market is reacting accordingly.

That is a staggering valuation of $4 billion. In comparison, Yuga Labs' valuation at the launch of the APE token was similar. Crypto researcher @Haotian bluntly pointed out that this valuation is 'severely overvalued'. Monetizing attention is a short-term game: built on FOMO and speculation, lacking long-term fundamental support. Over-engineering harms the Meme spirit: Meme culture relies on simplicity—too many features may stifle its appeal. Valuation incentives harm innovation: when traffic monetization overshadows true technology, cryptocurrency deviates from its original intent.

Another KOL @xingpt pointed out that Pump.fun's 30-day annualized revenue is $77.98 million. With a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $5 billion, its FDV/revenue ratio is about 64—this is quite a high number. In contrast, DeFi blue-chip projects like Raydium and PancakeSwap have more stable profits but more conservative valuations, highlighting the high risk of Pump.fun.

KOL @CryptoV believes that Pump.fun has played a key role in making Solana the main battlefield for on-chain activity. It addresses the full-stack issue from zero liquidity to listing on centralized exchanges (CEX)—like the on-chain iPhone. He believes that Pump.fun captures two key metrics of the attention economy: liquidity and screen time.

He also pointed out that with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 5, Pump.fun may actually be a value investment. No airdrops, no internal games—just pure product-driven traction. From this perspective, it is more stable than many hype-driven projects.

At first glance, Pump.fun's token plan may just be another market hype event. In the short term, the project may still trigger a brief surge. If it successfully builds a complete Meme ecosystem through this token issuance, it may truly deserve the title of 'on-chain iPhone'. This is not just a token issuance—it's a live experiment of the on-chain attention economy mechanism.
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