A phase-top pattern is emerging, and key support levels are facing tests.
As a financial practitioner, we conduct an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin's current trend from four dimensions: technical indicators, market sentiment, on-chain data, and macro environment.
1. Technical indicators: Weekly charts show weakness, and key support levels are under pressure.
Weekly RSI overbought & MACD momentum weakening: Bitcoin's weekly RSI has entered the overbought zone, and the MACD momentum bars continue to narrow, indicating a waning upward momentum, similar to the technical patterns at the end of the 2021 bull market.
Double top structure emerging: Current prices have faced resistance multiple times around $110,000, and if it falls below $100,000, it may form a similar 'double top' structure as seen in 2021, further declining to the $97,000-$94,000 range.
Key support level:
$103,700 (0.95 SSD percentile): Short-term support, if broken, may accelerate downward movement.
$95,600 (0.85 SSD percentile): Medium-term support, if lost, market sentiment may turn bearish.
$94,000 (psychological level): If broken, it may trigger larger-scale technical selling and confirm the end of the phase.
2. Market sentiment: Institutional and retail divergence, increased profit-taking pressure.
Long-term holders (LTH) accelerate selling: On-chain data shows that investors holding for over a year have recently dominated sales, with daily profit peaks reaching $1.47 billion, indicating that 'old hands' are cashing out at high levels.
- Institutional capital inflow vs. retail caution: Although net inflows into the US spot Bitcoin ETF reached $2.75 billion in a single week (led by BlackRock and Fidelity), retail sentiment has clearly cooled, with Google searches for 'Bitcoin bubble' increasing by 320%.
Derivatives market signals: The futures basis interest rate has fallen to 8% (below 20% in December 2024), indicating that leveraged long positions are not overly aggressive, but the options delta skew index (-6%) still shows a bullish structure.
3. On-chain data: Supply surge, can demand sustain it?
The heatmap shows that the early accumulation zone has turned into a selling pressure zone: Historical accumulation areas such as $25,000-$31,000 and $60,000-$73,000 have now transformed into supply-dense areas, limiting further upward movement.
Miners and long-term holders (LTH) accelerate distribution: November data has shown a surge in supply, nearing the levels of the 2022 bear market; if demand cannot match, prices may continue to be under pressure.
4. Macroeconomic variables: Uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policies and Trump's cryptocurrency strategy.
Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have weakened: Powell hinted at a slowdown in the pace of rate cuts, and maintaining high interest rates may suppress the performance of risk assets, putting short-term pressure on Bitcoin.
Fluctuations in Trump policy expectations: Although Trump had promised to promote a 'national Bitcoin reserve', the specific policy implementation has not met expectations, leading to a decline in market sentiment.
Conclusion and strategic recommendations
1. Short term (1-2 weeks): If Bitcoin breaks below $100,000, pay attention to the support range of $97,000-$94,000, and if the rebound is weak, it may further decline.
2. Medium term (1-3 months): If the $94,000 level is lost, the market may enter a deep adjustment, and new bottom signals need to be awaited (such as on-chain chip sedimentation and institutional buying on dips).
3. Long term (6 months+): If the macro environment improves (such as the Federal Reserve shifting to easing, and Trump policies being implemented), Bitcoin may still restart its upward trend, but caution is needed for structural changes in the market (such as institutions dominating pricing power).
Operational advice:
Short-term traders: After breaking below $100,000, consider light short positions with a target of $97,000-$94,000 and a stop-loss at $103,000.
Long-term investors: If it falls below $90,000, consider gradual positioning and pay attention to on-chain data (such as LTH holdings rebounding and reduced miner selling pressure).
The current market is at a critical turning point, and it is necessary to closely monitor the interplay between technical indicators, on-chain data, and macro policies.
The above only represents personal opinions and does not constitute investment advice.
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